Intel Shares Fall Nearly 30% After Weak Q4 Forecast

Intel shares closed down about 28% on Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, near $65, after the chipmaker’s fourth-quarter guidance landed far below analyst estimates. Coinpedia reported the drop was on track to be the steepest one-day fall for the stock since 1974, with the shares trading around $63.56 intraday.

The selloff followed a third quarter that beat expectations. Revenue rose 21% year over year to $16.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share reached $0.52, according to Decrypt, which described it as Intel’s eighth consecutive quarter of exceeding its financial expectations. Coinpedia reported shares had gained roughly 150% this year before the earnings release, while Finbold put the 2026 gain at 66%.

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What drove the guidance down

CFO David Zinsner pointed to a PC slowdown driven by rising memory and component costs and said he expects it to last at least through the first half of 2027, Coinpedia reported. Decrypt and Finbold carried the same timeline, with Finbold adding that manufacturing constraints and advanced packaging bottlenecks are also limiting how many data-center processors Intel can ship.

An explosion at Intel’s Israel plant earlier in October, which killed two workers, is expected to cut about $600 million in revenue across two quarters, according to Coinpedia.

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On the earnings call, Zinsner said Intel is not likely to generate positive free cash flow next year, Decrypt reported, describing 2027 as an investment year. Finbold noted the company does not expect positive free cash flow in 2026 either, and cited a balance sheet showing $21.85 billion in cash and cash equivalents against $50.13 billion in total debt.

Wall Street splits on the stock

Analysts cut targets but disagreed on severity, per Finbold. Bank of America downgraded Intel to Neutral from Buy and cut its target from $145 to $100. Roth Capital moved to Neutral and lowered its target from $120 to $70, Susquehanna cut from $105 to $75 with a Neutral rating, and Cantor Fitzgerald went from $125 to $90, also Neutral. KeyBanc kept Overweight while trimming its target from $155 to $140, and Evercore ISI kept Outperform with a $131 target.

Finbold framed a move below $50 as a scenario worth watching rather than a forecast, noting the stock would need to fall roughly 24% from Friday’s close, and wrote that such a decline would likely require further deterioration in the outlook.

Why it matters

Intel sits in an awkward position: demand for its data-center chips is growing, but factory and packaging limits mean it cannot fully supply that demand while its PC business shrinks and its fabrication buildout absorbs cash. The share drop also hit large holders — Coinpedia reported it reduced the value of the US government’s 10% stake by roughly $12 billion and Nvidia’s holding by about $6 billion. The gap between Intel’s strong quarter and its weak forecast shows how much of the recovery case now depends on manufacturing execution rather than order books.

What to watch

Intel’s fourth-quarter results will show whether revenue lands in the $15 billion to $16 billion range and whether gross margin holds near the 38% guided figure. Progress on the 18A process, server processor output and any firm foundry customer commitments are the concrete signals investors will track.

This is not financial advice. Markets are volatile and uncertain, and price targets from analysts are opinions rather than guarantees.

Sources: Coinpedia, Finbold, Decrypt