Bitcoin Closes Above 50-Week Moving Average for First Time Since 2025
Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase on Sunday, above its 50-week moving average of $78,788, marking the first weekly close above that level in more than 10 months, according to Cointelegraph. The last weekly close above the moving average was on Nov. 9, 2025.
Bitcoinmagazine reported that Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50-week simple moving average for the first time this cycle, and that market analyst Sean Hagan puts roughly 80% confidence on the move being a genuine regime change. The outlet also noted Bitcoin was up nearly 10% on the week and pushing through $86K, in contrast with the $81,159 weekly close Cointelegraph cited from Coinbase. Bitcoinmagazine’s coverage described the timing as lining up almost exactly with the one-year window from all-time high to cycle bottom.
Also read: Bitcoin Rebounds 9.15% to $81,502 as Short-Term Holders Book Profits
Key facts
- Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase, above its 50-week moving average of $78,788, per TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph.
- The last weekly close above the moving average was on Nov. 9, 2025, according to Cointelegraph.
- Bitcoinmagazine reported that Sean Hagan puts roughly 80% confidence on this being a genuine regime change and that Bitcoin was up nearly 10% on the week, pushing through $86K.
- Galaxy Research’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said that in four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitively in.
- Nasdaq reported that AAR Corp shares crossed above their 200-day moving average of $115.89 on Monday, trading up about 3.1% on the day.
What the moving average signals
Thorn, whose firmwide research role at Galaxy Research is cited by Cointelegraph, framed the level as a ceiling during bear markets in an August research note, adding that retaking the 50-week moving average has previously confirmed the end of a bear market. Galaxy also cautioned that the signal is not infallible: of 13 weekly crossings back above the average, two were followed by a lower low, both in the 2021-2022 bear market.
Ben Simpson, founder of crypto research company Collective Shift, told Cointelegraph before the close that Bitcoin clearing the average would be the last thing he needed to see before calling a bull market, and said Bitcoin gained between 700% and 900% after breaking above the level in 2017, 2020 and 2023.
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Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that the close added weight to the case for a recovery, noting that reclaiming the level has tended to follow the major low and a turn in longer-term momentum. He also said one weekly close was not enough to confirm a cycle bottom and that failed reclaims have happened before when the macro backdrop stayed difficult.
Other analysts hold back
Not everyone treats the average as the trigger. Crypto trader Craig Cobb told Cointelegraph he is watching $83,000 instead, which he said would mean there is no lower high on the monthly chart and the trend is no longer down. Cobb’s second test is Bitcoin’s three-month chart: a run of red quarterly candles ending in a green candle, followed by a candle breaking above the green candle’s high. He said the red-to-green transition has occurred 15 times, the first green candle’s high was subsequently broken in 11 of them, and all 11 eventually produced a new all-time high.
Why it matters
The weekly close gives long-term holders and analysts a concrete reference point after months in which the average acted as resistance, and it arrives alongside what Cointelegraph described as cleared leverage from repeated liquidations and signs of returning institutional demand. Bitcoin has recovered from July lows of $57,000, per Lee’s comments to Cointelegraph. The split in interpretation matters for readers weighing whether the move marks a regime shift or another failed reclaim, especially given the two prior failures Galaxy identified.
What to watch
The next weekly close is the immediate test: Lee said what matters now is whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week average and keep forming higher lows, while Cobb said he wants to see $83,000 broken plus the close of the September three-month candle. Bitcoinmagazine added that one additional weekly close would confirm the signal.
This article is not financial advice, and cryptocurrency markets are volatile and uncertain.
Sources: Bitcoin Magazine, Cointelegraph, Nasdaq
