Bitcoin closed the third quarter of 2026 with its strongest three-month performance since the final quarter of 2024, gaining about 40% while holding near the $83,000 mark, according to Bitcoinmagazine. Blockonomi separately reported the quarter’s gain at 43.1%, attributing that figure to The Kobeissi Letter.
The two outlets frame the move the same way: the rally accelerated after August 19, when the U.S. Treasury said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. Bitcoinmagazine cited The Kobeissi Letter in putting bitcoin up close to 30% since that announcement, while Blockonomi’s figure covered the full third quarter.
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Key facts
- Bitcoinmagazine reported a 40% quarterly gain, the largest since Q4 2024, with the price near $83,698 at the time of writing.
- Blockonomi, citing The Kobeissi Letter, reported a 43.1% Q3 2026 gain and said bitcoin last touched $85,128 over the weekend before slipping below $83,000 on Monday.
- CoinGlass order book data showed concentrated selling interest near $85,000, with Glassnode analysts posting that long-term holder supply sits between $84,000 and $85,000.
- Total liquidations reached close to $78 million, of which $44 million were short positions, per Blockonomi.
- Spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.4 billion during the week ending September 25, according to Blockonomi.
Yields, oil and the debasement trade
Bitcoinmagazine tied much of the advance to the Treasury’s attempt to bring down bond yields, which had climbed to highs last seen in the 2000s. Lower long-term yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay nothing, the outlet noted, and generally support a willingness to take risk. Yields stayed elevated anyway, but bitcoin investors appeared unbothered, with the dollar continuing to weaken and the debasement trade resurgent after total U.S. debt passed $40 trillion for the first time in July.
Blockonomi added detail from the credit and commodity markets. Brent crude fell to its weakest level in nearly seven days as Middle Eastern exports reached 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the strongest flow since February, and West Texas Intermediate dropped below $90 for the first time in three weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since April 2002 and the 30-year since June 2002, though the selloff eased after New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank felt no urgency to make its next policy move. Gold fell 3.6% to $4,115 an ounce before recovering to $4,166, a move The Kobeissi Letter called highly unusual.
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On geopolitics, Blockonomi reported that President Trump dismissed an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and disputed reports of a willingness to ease sanctions, with Qatari intermediaries still involved and Reuters sources seeing little chance of a deal before the midterm elections. Bitcoinmagazine noted the coin has also absorbed a Federal Reserve rate increase and lawmakers’ blocking of the Clarity Act.
Why it matters
Bitcoin’s fall from an October all-time high of $126,080 to a drop of more than 50% had left the market searching for a bottom. Bitcoinmagazine reported that the decline produced the shallowest bear market in bitcoin’s history so far, and that CryptoQuant said last week bitcoin had re-entered a bull market after crossing its 365-day moving average, a signal it described as definitive in past cycles. Blockonomi’s reading is more cautious: Nexo’s Iliya Kalchev called $82,000 a likely support floor, warning that a break below $80,000 would signal fading momentum while a clean breakout could open a path toward $90,000. Kalchev also flagged a split in sentiment, with crypto nearing extreme greed while equities have stayed fearful for three consecutive weeks. Citi’s extension of its crypto services into Japan and the UAE, reported by Blockonomi, added a positive note to the wider picture.
What to watch
The immediate test is whether bitcoin can clear the $84,000-$85,000 band where long-term holder supply is concentrated; Glassnode analysts said a decisive break is needed to sustain the rally. Blockonomi also noted expectations for an October rate increase by the Federal Reserve, with Mosaic Asset Company arguing that strong August employment figures could support equity gains despite that expectation.
This article is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and prices can move sharply in either direction.
Sources: Bitcoin Magazine, Blockonomi
