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XRP was quoted at $1.3110 on the weekly XRP/USD chart and has run into a dense resistance block around $1.37–$1.40, according to TradingView data cited by U.today. The outlet reported that the chart has entered a phase of extreme Bollinger Band compression, with the upper band at $1.5997 and the 20-week simple moving average at $1.2514 holding as a local floor.
U.today described the chart structure as a duplicate of the prolonged accumulation cycle seen between 2022 and 2024. Prediction markets tracked by the outlet, including Polymarket, put the odds of a move to $2 this month at only 10%.
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Key facts
- XRP trades at $1.3110 with resistance clustered in the $1.37–$1.40 zone.
- The weekly Bollinger Bands show extreme compression, with the 20-week SMA at $1.2514 and the upper band at $1.5997.
- Polymarket assigns a 10% probability to an XRP breakout above $2 this month.
- Ripple unlocks 1 billion tokens on the first day of each month, and roughly 200–300 million of them reach institutional partners through OTC deals.
- By October 2026, U.today reported, XRPL had added the XLS-66 amendment and a built-in AMM, alongside RLUSD integration and a U.S. digital commodity designation.
Strong network, flat price
The article draws a sharp contrast between the token’s sluggish spot market and progress on Ripple’s infrastructure. U.today credited three developments with reaching peak form by October 2026: a U.S. digital commodity classification that removed regulatory risk for banks, RLUSD stablecoin integration in payment corridors that raised native gas burn, and the XLS-66 amendment plus built-in AMM, which turned the ledger into a DeFi ecosystem.
The escrow mechanism is the counterweight. Each month Ripple releases 1 billion tokens, returns about 80% to lockup and routes the remainder to partners over the counter. Against tight Federal Reserve rates, that steady flow keeps retail buyers from driving a fast rally, according to the report.
Also readXRP Ledger passes 13M x402 AI payments, RippleX says
Four triggers U.today says could end the wait
The report lists four conditions that could force the price off its two-year brake:
- Bank demand on the OTC market exceeding scheduled escrow supply, pushing buyers onto public exchanges.
- A Federal Reserve rate cut that shifts capital from government bonds into legally clear crypto assets.
- Full deployment of XLS-66 lending pools, which would lock large amounts of coins in smart contracts for yield.
- Broad bank adoption of RLUSD in cross-border corridors, which would multiply fee burns and create deflationary pressure.
U.today argued that any one of these could interrupt the flat and described the timeline for a real assault on key price levels landing in the 2028 horizon. Until those triggers outweigh the scheduled escrow releases, the article said, bulls will have to plan around a long wait.
Why it matters
Ripple’s legal and product record is strong for the company, but the holder of the token is exposed to monthly supply growth that the company controls. That makes XRP an unusual case: a chain used for real payments and DeFi, yet trade in the token remains tied to OTC absorption and Fed policy rather than adoption headlines. For long-term holders, the practical consequence is a strategy built around patience rather than momentum.
What to watch
The next test is whether OTC demand absorbs the scheduled escrow releases and whether the weekly price can clear the $1.5997 upper band. Any signal of a Federal Reserve rate cut or a measurable pickup in RLUSD payment volume would be the other data points to track.
This article is not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile and uncertain, and no price prediction in it should be treated as a guaranteed outcome.
Source: U.Today
