Bernstein Defends Circle’s $140 Target, Says USDC Growth Doesn’t Need CLARITY Act
Bernstein analysts have reaffirmed their Outperform rating and $140 price target for Circle, the issuer of USDC, arguing that the company’s growth trajectory is not dependent on the fate of the CLARITY Act. The target implies roughly 59% upside from Circle’s $87.98 closing price on Friday, August 22.
The call comes as USDC supply showed renewed momentum, expanding by approximately $1.7 billion over the past week after months of muted growth. Bernstein’s team, led by Gautam Chhugani, said the increase signals that Circle’s core business is accelerating on its own merits, even as Washington debates the future of stablecoin regulation.
Also read: Top 5 Crypto Payment Gateways for Businesses in 2026: Fees, Features, and Best Use Cases
What’s Driving Circle’s Growth Beyond Legislation
Bernstein’s analysis points to several expanding use cases for USDC that are independent of any specific regulatory outcome. These include stablecoin payments, tokenized assets, blockchain-based capital markets, and emerging agent-driven transactions. The firm highlighted that USDC is increasingly used as collateral across decentralized finance protocols, tokenized equities, real-world-asset perpetual futures, and prediction markets.
The broader stablecoin market is also showing strong momentum. Bernstein estimated that adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes reached $11 trillion during 2025 and are tracking toward an annualized $17 trillion through July 2026. That represents roughly 60% year-over-year growth when excluding bots and high-frequency trading activity.
Also read: Zondacrypto Founder Still Missing Four Years On as CEO Remains Abroad
Circle’s Agent Stack platform, which enables automated payments for AI agents, is another area of focus. The service reportedly supports more than 900 paid services, with USDC accounting for approximately 99% of x402 agent-payment volume. This positions Circle at the intersection of two fast-growing trends: stablecoin adoption and AI-driven commerce.
CLARITY Act: A Catalyst, Not a Dependency
The CLARITY Act remains a significant regulatory milestone for the stablecoin industry, with a Senate vote expected on September 15. However, Bernstein argues that Circle’s investment case does not hinge on the bill’s passage. The analysts noted that if lawmakers reject the legislation, the SEC and CFTC could step in with their own regulatory frameworks, potentially accelerating clarity through administrative action.
Stablecoin rewards are one of the key issues in the legislative debate. Without the CLARITY Act, third-party reward programs would continue under existing arrangements. If the bill passes, rewards could become more directly tied to user activity. Bernstein considers both scenarios manageable for Circle’s USDC business.
That said, competition remains a real risk. Rival stablecoin models, including consortium-based approaches backed by traditional financial institutions, could pressure margins and challenge Circle’s market position. Bernstein acknowledged this concern but maintained that the scale of stablecoin adoption growth provides substantial upside that outweighs competitive threats.
What to Watch Next
The September 15 Senate vote on the CLARITY Act will be a key event for the entire stablecoin sector. Traders and investors will also be monitoring weekly USDC supply data to see whether the recent $1.7 billion expansion marks the start of a sustained trend or a temporary spike.
Circle’s ability to maintain its lead in the agent-payment space and fend off consortium-based competitors will be critical to validating Bernstein’s $140 target. With stablecoin volumes growing at roughly 60% annually, the market’s trajectory appears favorable, but regulatory and competitive dynamics could still reshape the space.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and uncertain. Investors should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
