XRP Reserves on Binance Drop to Lowest Level Since February 2024 — Analyst Draws Parallel to 50% Rally Setup
XRP’s price has pulled back roughly 5% to around $1.31 after touching $1.70 last week, but on-chain data suggests a quieter, longer-term shift is underway beneath the surface volatility. According to CryptoQuant analyst darkfost, Binance’s monthly average XRP reserves have fallen by approximately 500 million tokens since November 2025, reaching 2.6 billion XRP — a level not seen since February 2024.
Falling Exchange Supply Points to Accumulation
The steady decline in Binance’s XRP balance is notable for its persistence. Darkfost’s analysis of monthly average reserves shows a consistent drawdown from roughly 3.1 billion XRP in November 2025 to the current 2.6 billion level. This type of movement typically indicates investors are withdrawing tokens from exchanges to hold them in private wallets, a behavior often associated with long-term accumulation rather than short-term trading.
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The timing of the drawdown also coincides with a significant structural development for the asset: the launch of US spot XRP ETFs in November and December 2025. ETF issuers build their inventory by purchasing the underlying asset, and the sustained outflows from Binance suggest these funds have been a meaningful source of buying pressure.
That demand continues to register. Weekly inflows into US spot XRP ETFs reached $130.50 million in the most recent reporting period, pushing cumulative inflows to roughly $1.68 billion since the products launched.
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The February 2024 Parallel
The current setup draws a direct comparison to a moment in early 2024 that proved significant for XRP holders. In February of that year, with Binance reserves at similar levels, XRP was trading near $0.52. Over the following two to three weeks, the token climbed to approximately $0.78 — a move of more than 50%.
Darkfost highlights the resemblance between the two periods, noting that the current reserve decline of about 500 million tokens mirrors the conditions observed then. However, the analyst stops short of guaranteeing a repeat performance, framing the falling reserves as “a relatively positive signal” whose importance lies more in the long-term trend than in immediate price action.
Liquidation Event Follows Rally
XRP’s recent climb to $1.70 — a gain of roughly 53% from its prior level — was followed by a sharp reversal. The pullback triggered a significant liquidation cascade, with total XRP liquidations reaching $8.83 million. Long positions bore the brunt of the damage, accounting for $8.15 million of that total, a sign that leveraged bulls were caught off guard by the sudden drop.
Profit-taking after such a steep rally is a common market reaction, and the liquidation data suggests the move lower was amplified by forced selling rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment.
What a Repeat Move Would Mean
If XRP were to replicate the 50% advance seen in the February 2024 setup from its current price level, the token would be trading in the vicinity of $2.50. That figure has emerged as a potential longer-term target in analyst discussions, though past performance offers no guarantee of future results.
For now, the more consequential signal may be the direction of Binance’s reserve balance. Sustained outflows, combined with steady ETF demand, point to a market where available supply is gradually tightening. Whether that translates into another sharp rally depends on broader market conditions, but the structural trend is one that long-term XRP observers are watching closely.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and uncertain. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
