Bitcoin Holds Near $65K as Kalshi Traders See 54% Odds of $67.5K August Move
Bitcoin was trading near $64,950 on August 8, 2026, as prediction market Kalshi showed traders assigning a 54% probability that the leading cryptocurrency will climb above $67,500 by the end of the month. The data comes as BTC struggles to reclaim the $65,500 level, a hurdle that has capped upside attempts this week.
August has historically been a challenging month for Bitcoin, but the Kalshi numbers suggest traders see a path to recovery, even if they are not betting on a dramatic breakout. The odds of reaching $70,000 stand at 31%, while the probability of moving above $72,500 drops to just 13%, according to the platform’s current pricing.
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Supply Zone Aligns With Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
The $67,500 target on Kalshi closely tracks a critical on-chain level: the short-term holder realized price of roughly $67,523. This metric represents the average acquisition cost of investors who bought Bitcoin within the last 155 days. When the price approaches this level, those holders often look to exit near breakeven, creating a potential wall of selling pressure.
The gap between Bitcoin’s spot price and this cost basis has narrowed to about $2,571, the smallest spread since July 21. That tightening suggests the market is approaching a decisive test where buyers attempting to push through resistance will collide with holders looking to offload positions.
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If Bitcoin reaches this zone, the market could see elevated volatility as these two forces compete for control. A decisive break above the realized price would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a rejection could reinforce the current corrective phase.
ETF Inflows Provide a Counterweight to August Seasonality
Offsetting some of the bearish seasonal pressure, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their second-best weekly inflow of the year. Data shows approximately 11,792 BTC, valued at around $754 million, flowed into ETF wallets this week, indicating continued institutional appetite despite the price slump.
The inflows suggest that institutional buyers are using the dip to accumulate exposure, a pattern that has historically preceded price stabilization. However, the flow data also highlights a divergence: while ETFs are absorbing supply, spot market momentum remains weak, keeping Bitcoin pinned below key moving averages.
CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson cautions that the market may not have reached its final bottom. In a recent analysis, Wedson noted that Bitcoin has not yet touched the deep undervalued levels typically observed near major cycle lows. This suggests the current pullback may be a standard correction within a broader range rather than the capitulation event that often marks a durable floor.
Bitcoin continues to hold above several on-chain support levels, which has kept the market structure intact for now. The immediate focus for traders remains the $65,500 resistance, followed by the $67,500–$67,523 supply zone. A failure to reclaim these levels could open the door to another leg lower, while a decisive breakout would invalidate the bearish short-term setup.
For now, the combination of resilient ETF inflows and cautious prediction-market optimism provides a mixed picture. The next few weeks will likely determine whether August follows its historical pattern of weakness or whether institutional accumulation is enough to flip the script.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and uncertain. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
