Bitcoin’s Path to $100K: Ex-Coinbase Analyst Sees Six-Figure BTC by Year-End
Bitcoin is trading at $77,129, up 22.8% over the past week, after former Coinbase Head of Institutional Research David Duong said he now expects the token to cross $100,000 before the end of 2026. Speaking on the Milk Road Show, Duong said his outlook has shifted higher in recent weeks, moving away from a prior consolidation range of $85,000–$90,000.
Duong attributed the revised forecast to a structural change in the market’s investor base. He said buying is increasingly driven by exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows rather than retail speculation, partly due to lower costs and reduced custody concerns following a recent self-custody security incident. These institutional flows, he argued, can override the traditional interest-rate narrative for extended periods, and he expects that dynamic to strengthen as the third quarter closes and the fourth quarter begins.
Also read: Bitcoin Price at Crossroads: $59,000 Support Level in Focus
Clarity Act Vote Looms as a Potential Catalyst
The Senate procedural vote on the Clarity Act, rescheduled for September 15, was also cited as a possible trigger. Duong said the market is pricing roughly 20% odds of the bill passing, calling the setup “one-sided.” A surprise passage could act as a significant positive catalyst, while a failure would likely have limited impact given how low expectations already are.
He added that regulatory progress does not depend solely on the bill, pointing to ongoing rulemaking efforts at both the CFTC and SEC as supportive factors regardless of the vote’s outcome. This suggests that even without new legislation, the regulatory environment is gradually becoming clearer for digital assets.
Also read: Bitcoin Nears $80K After $3B Short Squeeze; Pepeto Presale Hits $10.6M
Technical Confirmation Still Pending
Duong said a sustained move above Bitcoin’s recent range highs in the $65,000–$70,000 area, on stronger trading volume, would serve as technical confirmation of a new trading regime. He described his timing view as driven more by capital flows and macro conditions than by any fixed calendar date.
The current price action reflects a broader recovery in the crypto market, with South Korean exchange Upbit seeing a 273% surge in trading volume and other major tokens like Hyperliquid’s HYPE reaching all-time highs. These developments suggest renewed risk appetite among traders.
What This Means for Bitcoin Investors
For investors, the key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s path to $100K is not guaranteed. While ETF inflows and regulatory progress provide tailwinds, the market remains highly volatile and subject to sudden shifts. The upcoming Clarity Act vote on September 15 is a near-term event that could either accelerate or temper the rally.
Long-term, the shift toward institutional participation via ETFs may reduce the impact of interest rate decisions on Bitcoin’s price, but it also introduces new risks, such as regulatory scrutiny of the funds themselves. Investors should monitor both technical levels and legislative developments closely.
As always, this analysis is not financial advice. The cryptocurrency market is volatile and uncertain, and any price predictions are speculative. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
