Ethereum is trading near $2,675 after another run at the $2,750-$2,800 zone, and the on-chain data behind the attempt looks different from a simple sell wall, according to Coinpedia. Transactions above $100,000 spiked as price approached $2,800, and older coins started changing addresses again at the same time.
Coinpedia’s Oct. 3 analysis frames the question directly: whether large holders are selling into resistance or positioning for a break higher. The evidence it cites tilts toward the second reading.
Also readEthereum Holds Near $2,500 as $2,600 Resistance Caps Recovery
Key facts
- ETH has repeatedly failed to turn $2,800 into support and was trading around $2,675 at the time of the report.
- An ICO-era wallet bought 8,492.8 ETH for roughly $23.7 million at about $2,794, and another whale accumulated 1,486 ETH for about $4 million near $2,710.
- Tracked whales withdrew approximately $3.20 billion from exchanges and deposited $1.34 billion in the 30 days through Oct. 1, a net outflow of $1.86 billion.
- The 30-day MVRV recovered slightly as ETH moved back toward $2,800, while Weighted Sentiment weakened after several failed breakout attempts.
- Ethereum formed a broad double bottom near $1,600 before reclaiming $2,000 and clearing the $2,400-$2,500 resistance cluster.
What the on-chain signals show
Two metrics moved together during the latest recovery. Whale Transaction Count recorded sharp spikes as ETH pushed toward $2,800, and Age Consumed showed a similar burst, meaning previously dormant ETH was changing addresses again. Large and old holdings active at the same moment is the setup Coinpedia describes as the center of the current resistance battle.
Exchange Supply tells a different story than a distribution phase. It has trended lower over the broader period, and tracked whale flows reinforce that: the net $1.86 billion in ETH that left exchanges exceeded what came in over the 30 days to Oct. 1. The 90-day Mean Dollar Invested Age declined through much of September before stabilizing, a sign that older invested capital became more active during the recovery.
Also readWhales Accumulate 350,000 ETH Worth $617M as 17,650 ETH Exit Binance
Profitability up, sentiment down
Holder economics and social mood have moved in opposite directions. The 30-day MVRV recovered slightly alongside the move back toward $2,800, putting recent holders deeper into unrealized profit. Weighted Sentiment, by contrast, cooled after repeated failures to sustain a breakout.
That combination matters at this price. Coinpedia notes that rising MVRV can increase the profitable supply available for selling, while weaker sentiment limits fresh speculative demand. A sustained break would require buyers to absorb that supply.
Why it matters
$2,800 functions as the gate for Ethereum’s next leg. A daily close above it would confirm a fresh breakout and put $3,000 back in focus, with the next major supply region beyond that. A rejection would leave ETH exposed to profit-taking and a return to lower support, particularly if Age Consumed spikes again on the way down. For holders, the practical distinction is whether large-wallet activity is absorbing supply or feeding it into the rally.
What to watch
The daily close relative to $2,800 is the immediate trigger, with $2,600-$2,650 the first area to defend on the downside and the $2,400-$2,450 breakout region back in play if that gives way. Continued Exchange Supply declines alongside stable or improving MVRV would strengthen the accumulation case; renewed dormant-coin movements into exchange addresses would weaken it.
This is not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile and uncertain, and the levels described above are analytical scenarios rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Source: Coinpedia
