Galaxy Research Slashes Odds of Clarity Act Passage in 2026 to 30%
Galaxy Research, the research arm of the cryptocurrency-focused financial services firm, has revised its probability estimate for the passage of the Clarity Act in 2026 down to 30%. The updated forecast, released this week, marks a significant reduction from the firm’s earlier estimate of 50%, reflecting growing skepticism about the bill’s trajectory through a politically divided Congress.
Political Headwinds and a Crowded Calendar
Galaxy Research analysts, led by Head of Research Alex Thorn, outlined several factors behind the downgrade. Chief among them is the increasingly contentious political environment surrounding digital asset policy. While the Clarity Act has garnered bipartisan support in committee, its path to a floor vote remains uncertain as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
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“The legislative calendar is incredibly tight,” the report stated. “With must-pass spending bills, the farm bill, and national security priorities competing for floor time, a complex piece of financial legislation like the Clarity Act faces an uphill battle.” The report also noted that stablecoin-specific legislation, a key component of the broader act, may face additional scrutiny following recent market events.
What the Revised Odds Mean for the Market
The lowered probability injects a dose of realism into market expectations. For months, the potential passage of the Clarity Act has been a significant narrative driving optimism in certain corners of the digital asset industry, particularly among firms seeking regulatory clarity for stablecoin issuance and trading platforms.
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A 30% probability suggests that while passage is still possible, it is far from the base case. This could prompt businesses to adjust their compliance timelines and operational strategies, moving away from assuming a federal framework will be in place by 2027. The uncertainty may also influence capital allocation decisions for venture funds and institutional investors who have been waiting for clearer rules before committing more capital to U.S.-based crypto projects.
The report contrasts the U.S. legislative gridlock with progress in other jurisdictions. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation is already in effect, and the United Kingdom and Singapore have also advanced their own regulatory frameworks. This divergence could put U.S. firms at a competitive disadvantage, a point industry lobbyists have repeatedly raised with lawmakers.
What to Watch Next
The next key milestone for the Clarity Act will be its markup in the House Financial Services Committee, expected later this quarter. Galaxy Research notes that if the bill emerges from committee with strong bipartisan support, the odds could improve. Conversely, if amendments introduce contentious provisions — such as specific requirements for algorithmic stablecoins or decentralized finance protocols — the probability could fall further.
Investors and industry participants should also monitor the broader political environment. The 2026 midterm elections will reshape Congress, and the outcome could either accelerate or derail crypto legislation. A change in control of either chamber would likely lead to a complete reset of legislative priorities, effectively killing the bill’s chances for the remainder of the 119th Congress.
For now, Galaxy Research’s 30% estimate serves as a sobering benchmark. The path to a comprehensive U.S. crypto regulatory framework remains open, but it is narrower and more precarious than many had hoped just a few months ago.
