Bitcoin Miners Hold Firm at -0.94 MPI as Active Investors Sink 20% Below Cost Basis
Bitcoin miners are holding the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) at -0.94, a level that has barely budged in weeks, while active investors are sitting on an average loss of 20%, according to data from CryptoQuant. The index, which tracks whether miners are selling more or less than their one-year average, has remained negative since the second quarter of 2026, signaling a refusal to dump coins even as the market churns near $63,000.
Miners Stay on the Sidelines
Early 2026 saw the MPI spike into positive territory in short bursts, but those rallies faded quickly. Since the second quarter, negative prints have outnumbered positive ones consistently. CryptoQuant’s QuickTake this weekend noted that miner behavior shows “no structural shift,” leaving the index parked in a narrow band below zero. Exchange inflows, however, tell a different story: Bitcoin exchange inflows spiked to nearly 49,000 BTC in one late June session, a level touched only a handful of times this year, with average deposit sizes doubling. The divergence suggests that while miners are not selling, other market participants are moving coins to exchanges.
Also read: Bluechip Crypto Assets Move in Lockstep as $1.71 Trillion Market Cap Tests Recovery
The Cost Basis Wall at $76,700
A separate CryptoQuant analysis focused on the True Market Mean (TMM), which calculates the average cost basis of coins that still move on-chain, stripping out frozen or lost coins from Bitcoin’s early days. That average now sits near $76,700 and has been acting as a resistance level. According to analyst Joao Wedson, whose chart accompanies the analysis, May made the mechanism visible: investors hovering near breakeven chose to exit the market flat rather than hold through more downside. The ceiling held, and the price has struggled to reclaim that level since.
A 20% Hole That Could Widen
The AVIV ratio, which pairs with the TMM, currently hovers around 0.8, placing the average active investor in a devaluation zone — a loss of roughly one-fifth. Past bear cycles saw the ratio touch 0.5 to 0.6, representing drawdowns closer to 40% or worse. Wedson doubts this cycle will need that depth, citing the institutional adoption Bitcoin has attracted through ETFs and corporate treasuries. “Institutions arrived. ETFs poured billions in. Bitcoin still dictates its own rules,” he wrote on X. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio has also dropped into a rare zone, a level that preceded strong expansions in 2019, 2020, and 2023. Wedson closed with a note of humility, acknowledging that while the data points to potential upside, the market has yet to confirm a shift.
Also read: BTSE Launches Regulated Crypto Exchange in Indonesia Through Joint Venture
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a negative Miners’ Position Index mean?
A negative MPI means Bitcoin miners are moving fewer coins to exchanges compared to their one-year average, indicating they are not selling their holdings.
What is the True Market Mean in Bitcoin?
The True Market Mean is the average cost basis of all coins that have moved recently, excluding coins that have been frozen or lost since Bitcoin’s early days.
What is the AVIV ratio and why is 0.8 significant?
The AVIV ratio tracks how far underwater active Bitcoin holders are. At 0.8, it means the average active investor is nursing a loss of about 20%.
