Bitcoin Price Stalls as Gold Forecast Reveals Staggering $23,000 Target by 2034

Global financial markets witnessed a stark divergence on Friday, May 23, 2025, as Bitcoin’s price action remained trapped below the critical $90,000 threshold. Meanwhile, traditional safe-haven asset gold continued its relentless ascent toward the historic $5,000 per ounce milestone. This growing chasm between digital and traditional stores of value has culminated in one of the most audacious long-term forecasts in recent memory: a $23,000 price target for gold within the next decade. The contrasting performances are forcing investors to reassess risk appetites and portfolio strategies in an increasingly volatile macroeconomic landscape.

Bitcoin Price Struggles for Momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to capitalize on positive sentiment from earlier in the week, consolidating in a tight range below $90,000 as Wall Street trading commenced. Data from major exchanges and TradingView charts revealed stationary price action, a stark contrast to the record-breaking rallies seen in precious metals. Analysts point to several immediate technical and psychological levels dictating BTC’s near-term trajectory.

The $93,500 yearly open price has emerged as a primary upside target for any potential bullish reversal. However, traders warn that the path may first lead lower. “My bullish outlook still has us going down overall to the $75,000 – $70,000 region, but we revisit $100,000 first,” noted prominent trader Crypto Tony in his latest market analysis. He highlighted the influence of a nearby “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market around $93,000, which often acts as a price magnet for the spot market.

Market structure reveals key liquidation zones that could trigger volatility. Monitoring resource CoinGlass showed thickening liquidity clusters at $88,300 and $90,100. A breach below the $86,800 support level, as cautioned by analyst Michaël van de Poppe, could open the door to a test of recent lows. Conversely, a decisive break above $91,000 could ignite a stronger surge upward. This technical indecision underscores a market caught between bullish macro narratives and short-term risk aversion.

Gold’s Meteoric Rise and the $23,000 Forecast

While Bitcoin searches for direction, gold (XAU/USD) and silver have captured global headlines. Gold pierced $4,967 per ounce, coming within striking distance of the monumental $5,000 level. Silver simultaneously approached $100 per ounce. This rally is not occurring in a vacuum; it is supported by fundamental shifts in global finance.

Central bank demand has reached unprecedented levels. According to data analyzed by Capriole Investments, global central banks have been accumulating gold at a record pace, with China notably increasing its reserves tenfold in just two years. This institutional buying creates a formidable floor for prices. Furthermore, persistent global fiat money supply inflation, estimated at 10.5% annually, continues to erode currency value, driving capital into tangible assets.

The most eye-catching analysis comes from Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. In a detailed blog post, Edwards contextualized the current bull run within historical precedents like the great expansions of the 20th century. His quantitative model, factoring in central bank accumulation, monetary inflation, and macroeconomic cycles, projects a long-term trajectory for gold between $12,000 and $23,000 over the next 3 to 8 years. This forecast implies a potential quadrupling of value from current highs, a thesis that hinges on the continuation of current monetary and geopolitical trends.

Expert Analysis on the Market Divergence

The growing performance gap between Bitcoin and gold raises critical questions about asset correlation and the evolving definition of a “safe haven.” Historically, Bitcoin was touted as “digital gold,” but recent weeks have shown a decoupling. Experts point to different immediate catalysts: gold is buoyed by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank policy, and inflation fears, while Bitcoin is currently more sensitive to crypto-specific liquidity, regulatory developments, and trader sentiment within its own ecosystem.

The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold has hit its most overbought level since the 1970s, suggesting a potential near-term consolidation. However, as Edwards argues, such readings in a sustained macro bull market can remain elevated for extended periods. For Bitcoin, the ratio of BTC to gold (BTC/XAU) has weakened, currently hovering around 18 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, down from higher levels earlier in the year, indicating a relative shift in strength.

Historical Context and Macroeconomic Drivers

To understand the significance of a $23,000 gold price, one must examine past bull markets. The 1970s gold bull run, driven by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and high inflation, saw prices rise over 2,300%. The 2000-2011 run, fueled by easy monetary policy after the dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis, resulted in a 650% gain. The current environment shares similarities: a post-pandemic monetary expansion, rising sovereign debt levels, de-dollarization efforts by BRICS nations, and ongoing geopolitical fragmentation.

For Bitcoin, its entire history has been one of volatile cycles. Each major bull run has been followed by a significant drawdown before reaching new highs. The current consolidation below its all-time high, while traditional assets rally, presents a new narrative test. It challenges the assumption that Bitcoin will always lead during periods of monetary debasement and suggests that institutional capital flows may be prioritizing traditional hedges in the current climate.

Conclusion

The financial landscape in mid-2025 presents a tale of two assets. The Bitcoin price exhibits cautious, range-bound behavior, grappling with key technical levels and trader psychology. In stark contrast, gold charges forward, backed by robust fundamental demand and macroeconomic tailwinds, now carrying a staggering long-term gold forecast of up to $23,000 by 2034. This divergence highlights the complex and evolving nature of risk-off assets. It reminds investors that historical correlations can break down and that deep, fundamental analysis of monetary policy, institutional behavior, and global macro trends is more critical than ever for navigating the uncertain decade ahead.

FAQs

Q1: Why is Bitcoin’s price stuck below $90,000 while gold is hitting records?
The assets are reacting to different immediate pressures. Gold is being driven by record central bank buying, high global inflation, and geopolitical safe-haven demand. Bitcoin’s price is currently more influenced by technical trading levels, liquidity within the crypto ecosystem, and a cautious market sentiment seeking a clear catalyst for a breakout.

Q2: Is the $23,000 gold forecast realistic?
While highly ambitious, the forecast from Capriole Investments is based on specific macroeconomic models that extrapolate current trends in money supply inflation and central bank demand. It assumes the current bull market parallels major historical expansions. However, it remains a long-term projection subject to significant geopolitical and economic changes over an 8-year horizon.

Q3: What does a “CME gap” mean for Bitcoin’s price?
CME Bitcoin futures trade only on weekdays, sometimes creating a price “gap” between Friday’s close and Monday’s open. Traders often observe that the spot price tends to move to “fill” these gaps, making them potential short-term price targets or magnets, as referenced by trader Crypto Tony regarding the $93,000 level.

Q4: How does central bank activity affect gold’s price?
Central banks are the largest holders of gold. When they are net buyers on a massive scale, as they have been since 2022, it removes a significant amount of supply from the market, creates consistent demand, and validates gold’s role as a monetary asset, providing strong fundamental support for higher prices.

Q5: Could Bitcoin and gold both rise together in the future?
Absolutely. The current divergence does not preclude future correlation. Both assets share some common macro drivers, like distrust in traditional fiat systems. In a scenario of extreme currency debasement or a systemic financial crisis, both could be sought as alternative stores of value, potentially rising in tandem after their current individual narratives play out.