Bitcoin Trade is Over: Bloomberg Strategist’s Stark 2026 Macro Outlook Warns of Fundamental Shift

NEW YORK, April 2025 – In a significant reversal that has sent ripples through financial circles, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has declared the ‘Bitcoin trade is over,’ framing his bearish pivot within a broader, cautionary 2026 macroeconomic outlook that challenges conventional narratives across digital and traditional assets.

From Disruptive Hedge to Correlated Risk Asset

Mike McGlone, a respected voice at Bloomberg Intelligence, has fundamentally revised his long-term perspective on Bitcoin. He now advises investors to adopt a ‘sell the rallies’ strategy for 2026. This stance marks a dramatic departure from earlier views that often highlighted Bitcoin’s potential as a non-correlated, scarce digital asset. McGlone’s analysis hinges on a core thesis: Bitcoin’s fundamental market character has transformed.

Initially celebrated for its scarcity and potential to disrupt traditional finance, Bitcoin now operates within a ‘crowded and highly speculative ecosystem.’ Crucially, McGlone points to its increasing correlation with equity markets, particularly the Nasdaq. This growing synchronization means Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are now vulnerable to the same macroeconomic forces—such as interest rate decisions, inflation data, and liquidity conditions—that drive traditional risk assets.

The Warning Signs of a Paradigm Shift

McGlone draws parallels to historical market peaks, identifying several concurrent warning signals. First, he cites the approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. While initially seen as a legitimizing force, McGlone suggests this integration has accelerated Bitcoin’s absorption into the traditional financial system, diluting its unique value proposition.

Second, he highlights periods of historically low volatility, which often precede significant market repricing. Finally, he points to excessive retail and institutional speculation as evidence that the asset’s disruptive phase has matured into a mainstream, and therefore more predictable, market cycle. ‘Bitcoin has gone from being a hedge against the system to being firmly inside it,’ McGlone asserts, ‘and that changes everything.’

A Broader Macroeconomic Storm for 2026

McGlone’s bearish turn on Bitcoin is not an isolated view but part of a comprehensive and stark macroeconomic forecast for 2026. He extends his caution to stocks, commodities, and even precious metals. His outlook suggests a period of broad-based deleveraging and repricing across multiple asset classes as central banks grapple with the aftermath of aggressive monetary policies.

Notably, he offers a contrarian perspective on gold’s recent explosive rally. While many interpret strong gold performance as a bullish signal or a pure inflation hedge, McGlone posits it may be a ‘signal of deeper instability.’ He uses the evocative phrase that when ‘the stupid rock’ starts outperforming everything else, it is a moment for heightened investor vigilance, not celebration. This view frames gold’s strength less as a sign of its own merit and more as a symptom of widespread fear and a search for safety in an unstable financial landscape.

Historical Context and Market Psychology

This analysis finds context in historical financial patterns. The journey of disruptive technologies from niche adoption to mainstream integration often follows a predictable arc of high volatility, speculative frenzy, and eventual correlation with broader markets. The dot-com era and the proliferation of financial derivatives provide historical templates where innovative assets became systematized.

For Bitcoin, the path from cryptographic experiment to ETF-held asset on major exchanges like BlackRock and Fidelity represents this very journey. The resulting increase in institutional ownership inherently ties Bitcoin’s price action to flows in and out of traditional investment vehicles, tethering it to the sentiment governing the wider stock market.

Implications for Crypto Investors and Traders

McGlone’s outlook carries significant implications for portfolio strategy. If Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies are now firmly correlated risk assets, their role in a diversified portfolio must be reassessed. They may no longer provide the uncorrelated returns or inflation-hedging properties once anticipated by early adopters.

This new paradigm suggests that crypto market analysis will increasingly require a top-down macroeconomic approach. Traders must now closely monitor:

• Federal Reserve policy and global central bank liquidity.
• U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the dollar.
• Equity market performance, especially in tech stocks.
• Broad risk-on/risk-off investor sentiment.

The era of analyzing crypto in a vacuum, McGlone implies, has conclusively ended.

Conclusion

Mike McGlone’s declaration that the ‘Bitcoin trade is over’ represents a pivotal moment in financial commentary, signaling a potential end to the asset’s first disruptive chapter. His integrated 2026 macro outlook warns that Bitcoin’s maturation has come at the cost of its original hedging premise, embedding it within the very system it sought to challenge. For investors, this analysis underscores the necessity of viewing crypto not as a separate asset class but as a component of the global risk asset complex, whose fortunes in 2026 will be dictated by traditional macroeconomic winds and the broader search for stability in an uncertain financial landscape.

FAQs

Q1: What does Mike McGlone mean by ‘the Bitcoin trade is over’?
He means the era where Bitcoin acted as a unique, non-correlated hedge against traditional finance has ended. He believes it is now a mainstream risk asset whose price moves in sync with stocks and is vulnerable to the same macroeconomic forces.

Q2: Why does McGlone connect Bitcoin’s change to ETF approval?
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. facilitated massive institutional investment, directly tying Bitcoin’s liquidity and price action to traditional financial markets and investment fund flows, thereby accelerating its correlation with equities.

Q3: Is McGlone bearish on all assets for 2026?
His outlook is broadly cautious across risk assets, including stocks and commodities. He even interprets gold’s strong performance as a potential warning sign of systemic instability rather than pure strength, suggesting a defensive macro environment.

Q4: How should an investor adjust their strategy based on this outlook?
Investors should reassess crypto’s role in a portfolio, likely reducing its weighting as a unique hedge. Strategy should shift to a top-down macro approach, monitoring interest rates, liquidity, and equity market trends to inform crypto positions.

Q5: Does this mean Bitcoin has no future value?
McGlone’s analysis addresses its changing market role, not its underlying technology. He argues its price drivers have changed, not that the asset is worthless. It may still hold value but as a correlated, high-beta risk asset rather than an uncorrelated safe haven.