Bitcoin Price Cools from $96.5K Peak as Experts Declare Major Tariff Risk ‘Already Priced In’

On Wednesday, May 14, 2025, the Bitcoin price consolidated near $95,000, cooling from a recent surge to a two-month high of $96,500. This consolidation occurred despite a volatile macroeconomic backdrop featuring geopolitical tensions and a landmark US Supreme Court ruling on trade tariffs. Market analysts now argue that these significant risks are largely ‘priced in,’ allowing BTC to cement its position above key yearly levels.

Bitcoin Price Action Amid Macroeconomic Crosscurrents

Bitcoin’s recent price action presents a fascinating study in market resilience. After a powerful rally pushed BTC/USD to nearly $96,500, the leading cryptocurrency entered a phase of consolidation. This cooling period coincided with several potential volatility triggers. Firstly, escalating geopolitical concerns involving US policy toward Iran and Venezuela created uncertainty. Secondly, a public dispute between the US government and the Federal Reserve added to the tense financial atmosphere. Most notably, the US Supreme Court delivered a ruling declaring former President Donald Trump’s international trade tariffs illegal, a decision with potential multi-trillion-dollar implications for global markets.

Remarkably, traditional markets showed strength during this period. The S&P 500 futures hit fresh record highs, and gold continued its historic bull run, reaching approximately $4,639 per ounce. This created a stark contrast where Bitcoin, often seen as a risk-on asset, held steady while geopolitical and judicial risks mounted. The market’s behavior suggests a sophisticated pricing of known variables.

Expert Analysis: The ‘Priced In’ Phenomenon

Quantitative analysis from trading firms like QCP Capital provides crucial context. In their latest market update, analysts noted Bitcoin’s breakthrough of the $95,000 resistance level that had capped rallies since November 2024. They highlighted a key driver: the relative cheapness of Bitcoin compared to precious metals like gold, which are soaring on fears of fiat currency debasement. This disparity could spur a capital rotation into digital assets. Crucially, QCP’s assessment of the tariff ruling and other geopolitical risks was clear. “The market continues to move higher in the face of these risks, which makes us believe this is already priced in,” the firm stated, adding that further escalations might now represent ‘buy-the-dip’ opportunities rather than trend reversals.

Technical Perspectives and Key BTC Price Levels

Technical analysts are closely watching several critical price levels to gauge Bitcoin’s next directional move. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, identified a pivotal technical event: Bitcoin’s first daily close above its 2025 yearly open near $93,500 since January 6. “This opens up good odds of a trend to $108K from here,” Edwards commented, emphasizing the need for a confirming weekly close above that level to solidify the bullish breakout.

Other traders offered more cautious or contrasting views:

• Bullish Pattern Break: Trader Jelle identified a ‘major’ breakout from a descending triangle pattern that had been in place since mid-November 2024.
• Bearish Volume Divergence: Trader Roman remained skeptical, pointing to what he called ‘textbook bearish price action’ where rising volume accompanies price declines, followed by low-volume price increases. He warned the next high-volume move could be downward.
• Liquidity Run Warning: Analyst CrypNuevo advised caution ahead of Bitcoin’s 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $97,650, suggesting the recent gains could be a ‘liquidity run’ toward that level where price rejection might occur.

The consensus technical hurdle remains the psychological $100,000 mark, viewed by many as a definitive turning point for market sentiment.

The Broader Context: Bitcoin in a Global Asset Rally

Bitcoin’s current position is unique within the context of a broader global asset bull run. For months, equities and precious metals have charted consistent new all-time highs, while Bitcoin lagged. The recent push above $95,000 represents a potential catch-up phase. This shift is underpinned by a fundamental narrative of currency debasement and the search for non-sovereign stores of value. The Federal Reserve’s liquidity policies remain a central focus, with any sign of further monetary expansion potentially acting as a catalyst for digital asset inflows.

The market’s apparent dismissal of the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling is particularly instructive. It demonstrates a maturation in crypto market analysis, where known legal and political risks are efficiently incorporated into asset prices. This contrasts with earlier periods where such news might have triggered disproportionate volatility. The current stability suggests a market composed of more informed participants who are looking beyond headline shocks to underlying trends.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin price demonstrates remarkable stability after testing yearly highs, consolidating around $95,000 despite significant macroeconomic and geopolitical headlines. Expert analysis strongly indicates that risks from the US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and other known factors are already reflected in current valuations. The primary focus for traders now shifts to key technical levels, including the 2025 yearly open and the formidable $100,000 barrier. Bitcoin’s ability to hold gains while traditional markets also thrive suggests a complex but resilient financial ecosystem where digital assets are increasingly analyzed through a sophisticated, macro-aware lens. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this consolidation is a pause before a push toward $100,000 or a precursor to a deeper retracement.

FAQs

Q1: Why did the Bitcoin price cool off after hitting $96,500?
The Bitcoin price entered a natural consolidation phase after a strong rally. Markets often ‘cool off’ or consolidate to absorb gains and establish new support levels before attempting another move. Analysts also note it occurred amid significant macro news, which the market may have already anticipated.

Q2: What does it mean that a risk is ‘priced in’?
When a risk is ‘priced in,’ it means that market participants have already accounted for the potential impact of that event on an asset’s value. The expected outcome is reflected in the current price, so when the event actually occurs, it may not cause significant price movement unless the outcome is a surprise.

Q3: What was the US Supreme Court ruling mentioned, and why does it matter for Bitcoin?
The ruling declared previous US presidential trade tariffs illegal. This matters because it has vast implications for global trade, corporate profits, and economic stability—factors that influence all risk assets, including Bitcoin. The market’s muted reaction suggests it had anticipated such a decision.

Q4: What is the key technical level Bitcoin needs to hold?
The key level is the 2025 yearly open, approximately $93,500. A sustained weekly close above this level is viewed by many analysts as a strong bullish confirmation that could open the path toward higher price targets.

Q5: How is Bitcoin’s performance related to gold and stocks?
Bitcoin has recently lagged behind the record-breaking rallies in gold and major stock indices. Its move above $95,000 is seen as a potential catch-up phase. Both assets are responding to similar macro themes, like currency debasement concerns, but often on different timelines.