Bitcoin’s Critical $98K Breakout: The Essential Path to a $100,000 Triumph

As Bitcoin approaches the crucial $98,000 threshold in early 2026, market analysts globally are watching for signs of a sustained breakthrough that could propel the cryptocurrency to its long-anticipated six-figure valuation. The digital asset’s recent 10% rally from its yearly open near $87,500 demonstrates renewed momentum, yet the journey toward $100,000 faces significant technical and fundamental challenges that require careful examination.

Bitcoin’s Technical Battle at $98,000 Resistance

Bitcoin currently confronts a formidable supply barrier between $93,000 and $110,000, representing the lower boundary of long-term holder distribution clusters according to Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap. This region has historically separated corrective phases from durable bull regimes, creating what analysts describe as a “transition barrier” for price movement. The immediate technical challenge lies at $98,300, which represents the aggregate entry price of short-term holders who have maintained positions for fewer than 155 days.

Market technicians emphasize that sustained trading above this threshold would signal that new demand is effectively absorbing overhead supply. This absorption allows recent buyers to remain profitable while establishing a foundation for continued upward movement. Historical patterns indicate that reclaiming and holding above the short-term holder cost basis typically marks the transition from corrective phases into more durable uptrends, making the current price action particularly significant for medium-term trajectory.

Glassnode’s On-Chain Perspective

Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain report provides crucial context for understanding current market dynamics. The analytics firm notes that with price once again pressing into overhead supply, the market faces a familiar test of resilience where absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal. Their analysis reveals that this supply zone has consistently acted as a transition barrier throughout Bitcoin’s price history, separating corrective phases from durable bull regimes.

Spot Demand and ETF Inflows: The Fundamental Drivers

Beyond technical analysis, fundamental factors are playing an increasingly important role in Bitcoin’s potential ascent. Recent data shows a significant shift in spot market activity, with Binance and aggregate exchange cumulative volume delta measures returning to a buy-dominant regime. This transition away from persistent sell-side pressure indicates that traders are once again absorbing supply rather than distributing into strength, representing what Glassnode describes as a “constructive structural shift” in market dynamics.

Simultaneously, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are demonstrating renewed demand after several months of inconsistent flows. These investment products recorded inflows over three consecutive days totaling $1.7 billion, with Wednesday’s $843.6 million representing the highest single-day inflow since October 7, 2025, and marking the largest daily inflow of 2026. This resurgence in institutional interest provides crucial support for Bitcoin’s price foundation.

Expert Analysis on ETF Impact

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan offers a compelling historical parallel, noting that gold rallied 65% after its supply was absorbed by similar investment vehicles. Hougan suggests that Bitcoin could experience comparable momentum because ETFs are currently purchasing more BTC than the new supply being created through mining rewards. His analysis indicates that if ETF demand persists long-term, sellers will eventually run out of ammunition, potentially creating conditions for parabolic price movement.

Market Structure and Order Flow Dynamics

The current market structure reveals several important characteristics that could influence Bitcoin’s path forward. Analysts note that holding above the daily order block between $90,000 and $92,000 would strengthen the case for a sustained push above $100,000 before month’s end. This technical level represents concentrated buying interest that could provide support during any temporary pullbacks or consolidation periods.

Key structural elements currently influencing Bitcoin’s price action include:

• Long-term holder distribution: Established investors taking profits at resistance levels
• Short-term holder behavior: Recent buyers testing profitability thresholds
• Exchange dynamics: Shifting from sell-dominant to buy-dominant regimes
• Institutional participation: Renewed ETF inflows providing fundamental support

MN Capital’s Bullish Perspective

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, maintains an optimistic outlook based on current trend analysis. In recent commentary, he noted that it’s “even possible we hit that $100K mark this week” given the upward trajectory established since November 2025. His analysis emphasizes the importance of momentum continuation and the psychological impact of breaking through major round-number resistance levels.

Macroeconomic Context and External Factors

Bitcoin’s price movement occurs within a broader macroeconomic environment that includes persistent producer price inflation and ongoing uncertainty regarding US tariff policies. Despite these external pressures, the cryptocurrency has demonstrated resilience, recently tagging $97,000 before encountering resistance. This performance suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from traditional risk assets and developing its own fundamental drivers based on adoption and scarcity dynamics.

The relationship between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets continues to evolve, with several noteworthy developments:

• Reduced correlation with equity markets during specific periods
• Growing recognition as an inflation hedge despite volatility
• Increasing institutional allocation despite regulatory uncertainties
• Technical maturation of market structure and liquidity profiles

Historical Precedents and Pattern Recognition

Examining Bitcoin’s price history reveals patterns that may inform current expectations. Previous bull markets have typically featured extended consolidation periods below psychologically significant resistance levels before decisive breakthroughs. The current standoff near $98,000 mirrors historical behavior where Bitcoin tests supply concentrations multiple times before establishing new support levels.

Analysts identify several historical parallels that could provide context for current market behavior:

• 2017’s extended consolidation below $10,000 before rapid ascent
• 2020-2021’s repeated tests of $20,000 resistance
• Patterns of accumulation followed by rapid price discovery phases
• Correlations between hash rate growth and eventual price appreciation

Risk Considerations and Market Psychology

While technical and fundamental factors appear constructive, market participants must consider several risk factors. These include potential regulatory developments, macroeconomic shifts, and the inherent volatility of digital assets. The psychological aspect of approaching $100,000 may also influence trader behavior, with some participants taking profits prematurely while others increase positions in anticipation of further gains.

Conclusion

Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture where breaking through the $98,000 resistance level could establish the foundation for sustained movement toward and beyond $100,000. The convergence of improving spot demand, renewed ETF inflows, and constructive technical patterns creates a potentially favorable environment for upward price discovery. However, market participants should remain cognizant of the substantial supply concentration between $93,000 and $110,000 that must be absorbed for any durable trend reversal to materialize. The coming weeks will test whether current demand can overcome historical resistance and whether institutional participation through ETFs can provide the sustained buying pressure necessary for Bitcoin’s next major valuation milestone.

FAQs

Q1: Why is $98,000 specifically important for Bitcoin’s price?
The $98,300 level represents the aggregate entry price of short-term holders who have held Bitcoin for fewer than 155 days. Historically, sustained trading above this threshold indicates that new demand is absorbing overhead supply and has marked transitions from corrective phases into durable uptrends.

Q2: How do spot Bitcoin ETF inflows affect price movement?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs create direct buying pressure in the underlying market as issuers must purchase actual Bitcoin to back their shares. When ETF demand outpaces new supply from mining rewards, it creates net positive flow that can support price appreciation, especially when sustained over extended periods.

Q3: What is the significance of Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap?
This analytical tool visualizes where different investor cohorts entered the market, revealing supply concentrations that may act as support or resistance. The current heatmap shows significant long-term holder supply between $93,000 and $110,000 that must be absorbed for price to advance sustainably.

Q4: How does short-term holder behavior differ from long-term holder behavior?
Short-term holders (holding 155 days) generally demonstrate stronger conviction and are less likely to distribute during normal market fluctuations, though they may take profits at significant resistance levels.

Q5: What external factors could influence Bitcoin’s ability to reach $100,000?
Key external factors include macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation), regulatory developments, traditional market performance, mining economics, technological advancements, adoption metrics, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. These elements collectively influence investor psychology and capital allocation decisions.