Sam Bankman-Fried’s Stunning Trump Pardon Gambit Intensifies After Ellison’s Release

In a stunning political pivot, convicted FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has dramatically amplified his public support for President Donald Trump, a strategic move that legal and crypto analysts directly link to the recent release of his former associate, Caroline Ellison, and his own long-shot bid for executive clemency. From his prison cell, the disgraced crypto mogul has launched a series of social media endorsements praising Trump’s cryptocurrency stance and foreign policy, while simultaneously lambasting the Biden administration’s regulatory approach. This calculated public relations campaign, unfolding in April 2025, has ignited intense speculation about a potential presidential pardon and reshaped the political narrative surrounding one of finance’s most notorious collapses.

Sam Bankman-Fried’s Calculated Political Pivot

Following Caroline Ellison’s release from federal custody after serving 440 days, Sam Bankman-Fried’s public communications have taken a sharply political turn. Consequently, his recent activity on platform X represents a complete reversal from his previous political donations, which heavily favored Democratic candidates. Specifically, Bankman-Fried declared, “@realdonaldtrump is right on crypto,” and asserted that President Joe Biden “bungled crypto” during his term. Moreover, this shift is not isolated; it follows a February 2025 interview with the New York Sun and a March appearance with commentator Tucker Carlson, building a consistent narrative of support.

Bankman-Fried’s criticism focuses squarely on the Biden administration’s regulatory appointments. He specifically targeted former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whom Biden selected. Gensler, known for a “regulation before enforcement” philosophy toward digital assets, stepped down in January 2025 ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Conversely, Bankman-Fried has praised Trump’s appointment of Paul Atkins as Gensler’s successor. The crypto industry widely views Atkins as far more sympathetic to digital asset innovation, highlighting a clear policy divide between the two administrations.

The Ellison Release: A Catalyst for Action

The timing of Bankman-Fried’s amplified praise is critically important. Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research and a key witness in the case against Bankman-Fried, walked free just days before his social media posts surged. Ellison pleaded guilty to fraud and conspiracy charges related to the FTX collapse and cooperated with prosecutors. Her release, following a standard sentence reduction for cooperation, potentially removes a major public relations obstacle for Bankman-Fried. Observers interpret his subsequent activity as an attempt to capitalize on a moment of reduced negative attention and reframe his public image from a convicted fraudster to a political commentator.

The Legal Landscape and Pardon Speculation

Sam Bankman-Fried’s legal situation remains dire, providing the crucial context for his political messaging. A jury convicted him on seven felony counts, including wire fraud and money laundering, in November 2023. Subsequently, a judge sentenced him to 25 years in prison in March 2024. Currently, Bankman-Fried has appealed both his conviction and sentence; the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit is reviewing his case as of November 2025. Therefore, a presidential pardon represents one of the few remaining avenues to shorten his prison term, making his public support for Trump a high-stakes gambit.

The prediction market platform Polymarket quantifies the skepticism surrounding this strategy. Traders currently assign only a 17% probability that President Trump will pardon Bankman-Fried before 2027. This low figure reflects the significant political risk such a pardon would carry, given the scale of the FTX customer losses, estimated in the billions. Historical precedent also offers little comfort; presidential pardons for high-profile financial criminals are exceptionally rare, especially for individuals who have not yet exhausted their full appellate process.

Broader Political and Crypto Market Implications

Bankman-Fried’s commentary extends beyond cryptocurrency into foreign policy, revealing a broader effort to align with Trump’s agenda. For instance, he praised Trump’s controversial arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, calling the move “smart, gutsy, and pro-democracy.” This endorsement of a hardline geopolitical action seems strategically designed to appeal to Trump’s base and demonstrate support on multiple fronts. Furthermore, Bankman-Fried claimed, “All the world leaders I met were fed up with Biden,” leveraging his former status as a billionaire global financier to lend credibility to his political critiques.

The implications for the cryptocurrency industry are profound. The stark contrast between the Biden-era SEC under Gensler and the Trump-era SEC under Atkins creates a clear regulatory fork in the road:

• Gensler Era (2021-2025): Characterized by aggressive enforcement actions and a push for comprehensive regulations before widespread adoption. This approach created significant uncertainty for crypto firms.
• Atkins Era (2025-Present): Expected to prioritize innovation-friendly frameworks and clearer guidelines. The industry anticipates a less adversarial relationship with the regulator.

Bankman-Fried’s very public alignment with this shift serves to remind the crypto community of his once-influential voice, while also attempting to position his legal fate as intertwined with the industry’s preferred regulatory future.

Expert Analysis on the Pardon Strategy

Legal experts remain deeply skeptical of the pardon strategy’s viability. Professor Eleanor Vance, a clemency scholar at Georgetown Law, notes, “Historically, pardons for financial crimes of this magnitude are almost unheard of, especially while appeals are pending. The political cost of appearing to favor a wealthy, convicted fraudster over thousands of defrauded customers is immense.” Conversely, political strategist Mark Chen observes the narrative play: “Bankman-Fried is attempting to rebrand himself as a martyr of overzealous regulation. By tying his fate to Trump’s crypto policy, he’s trying to make a pardon seem like a victory for the industry, not just for himself.” This analysis underscores the complex dual narrative at work.

Conclusion

Sam Bankman-Fried’s intensified support for President Donald Trump following Caroline Ellison’s release constitutes a transparent and high-risk strategy for securing a presidential pardon. By publicly aligning himself with Trump’s cryptocurrency policies and broader agenda, Bankman-Fried aims to reshape his public image and political relevance. However, the formidable legal precedent, low prediction market odds, and immense political risks involved suggest his gambit faces monumental obstacles. Ultimately, this episode highlights the enduring intersection of cryptocurrency, high-stakes legal battles, and political power in 2025, with the former FTX CEO’s future hanging in the balance as a symbol of this ongoing convergence.

FAQs

Q1: Why is Sam Bankman-Fried supporting Donald Trump now?
Bankman-Fried’s support appears to be a calculated strategy aimed at securing a presidential pardon. Following his 25-year sentence and the release of his former colleague Caroline Ellison, he is publicly aligning with Trump’s pro-crypto policies and criticizing the previous administration to curry favor.

Q2: What are the actual chances Trump will pardon Sam Bankman-Fried?
Prediction markets like Polymarket currently estimate the probability at around 17%. Legal experts consider it a long shot due to the severity of the crimes, the billions in customer losses, and the political backlash a pardon would likely generate.

Q3: How does Caroline Ellison’s release connect to Bankman-Fried’s actions?
Ellison’s release after serving her sentence removes a major ongoing news story about the FTX collapse. Analysts believe Bankman-Fried sees this as an opportunity to shift public attention and reframe the narrative around his own case without the immediate contrast of a cooperating witness still being imprisoned.

Q4: What is Bankman-Fried’s current legal status?
He is currently serving a 25-year federal prison sentence following his November 2023 conviction. As of November 2025, he has appealed both the conviction and sentence, and his case is under review by the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit.

Q5: How has the change in SEC leadership influenced this situation?
The replacement of Gary Gensler (appointed by Biden) with Paul Atkins (appointed by Trump) symbolizes a major shift in crypto regulatory philosophy. Bankman-Fried is leveraging this change to argue that his prosecution was partly a product of an adversarial regulatory regime, thereby framing a potential pardon as alignment with the new, more industry-friendly approach.