Bitcoin Price Analysis: Did the $77K Plunge Mark the Ultimate Bull Run Pullback?

Global cryptocurrency markets experienced significant turbulence on Saturday, May 17, 2025, as Bitcoin’s price plunged approximately 7% to briefly touch the $77,000 level, erasing over $2 billion in leveraged positions. This sharp decline has ignited a crucial debate among top analysts: did this event constitute the “deepest pullback” of the current Bitcoin bull run, or is further downside imminent? The answer carries profound implications for investor strategy in the volatile digital asset landscape.

Analyzing the $77,000 Bitcoin Price Floor

Prominent Bitcoin analyst PlanC ignited the discussion with a pointed assessment shared on social media platform X. He suggested the weekend sell-off might represent a major capitulation event, drawing direct parallels to historical cycle lows. “Decent chance this will be the deepest pullback opportunity this Bitcoin bull run,” PlanC stated, anchoring his analysis in comparative market psychology. Following the drop, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience, recovering to trade near $78,690, though it remains down over 11% for the past month. This price action sits roughly 38% below the asset’s all-time high of $126,100, recorded on October 5, 2024.

PlanC’s thesis relies on identifying familiar patterns. He explicitly compared the recent downtrend to defining bear market events:

• The 2018 Capitulation: Bitcoin collapsed to approximately $3,000.
• March 2020 COVID Crash: Prices plummeted to around $5,100.
• The FTX & Luna Collapses (2022): BTC found lows near $15,500 and $17,500, respectively.

“There is a decent chance we are going through another major capitulation low as we speak,” PlanC concluded, projecting that “the ultimate low will be between $75,000 and $80,000.” This framework provides a historical lens, suggesting the recent volatility fits a recurring pattern of sharp, painful corrections within larger bullish trends.

Weekend Volatility and Trader Psychology

The timing of the drop amplified market anxiety. Weekend trading sessions typically feature lower liquidity, which can exacerbate price movements. Bitcoin advocate and financial accountant Rajat Soni immediately cautioned investors against knee-jerk reactions. “Never trust a weekend pump OR dump,” Soni warned in his own X post. He emphasized the deceptive nature of low-volume price action, advising a measured, long-term perspective. “Bitcoin will make a comeback when you least expect it,” he added, highlighting the asset’s historical tendency to defy short-term pessimism.

This perspective underscores a critical tenet of cryptocurrency investing: distinguishing between noise and signal. Weekend volatility often reflects the actions of leveraged retail traders rather than institutional capital flows. Consequently, savvy analysts urge reviewing price action within the broader context of weekly and monthly charts. The rapid partial recovery from the $77,000 low supports the argument that strong underlying demand persists, potentially absorbing the selling pressure.

Diverging Analyst Predictions and Downside Risks

However, not all market observers share PlanC’s relatively optimistic pullback thesis. Several respected voices warn of extended downside risk, introducing significant counterpoints to the discussion. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently published analysis suggesting Bitcoin could retreat to the $60,000 level by the third quarter of 2026, a prediction that implies a more prolonged and deeper corrective phase.

Similarly, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, posited that 2026 might become a “year off” for Bitcoin, with prices potentially revisiting the $65,000 range. These projections often stem from macroeconomic modeling, including factors like interest rate trajectories, equity market correlations, and adoption cycle analysis. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen anticipates the true market cycle low will arrive in early October, but notes, “anticipates plenty of rallies will occur between now and then.” This view splits the difference, acknowledging near-term volatility while reserving judgment on the final low.

The Broader Market Context and Liquidation Event

The $77,000 dip did not occur in isolation. It triggered a cascade of liquidations across derivative exchanges, with total liquidations exceeding $2 billion. This event primarily impacted over-leveraged long positions, effectively resetting excessive bullish speculation. Such deleveraging events, while painful in the short term, often create healthier market conditions by removing unstable, debt-fueled positions. The scale of the liquidation underscores the persistent risk inherent in cryptocurrency margin trading, especially during periods of parabolic price appreciation.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s current price action exists within a complex global financial environment. Central bank policies, inflation data, and geopolitical tensions continue to influence risk asset correlations. The maturation of Bitcoin ETFs has also changed market dynamics, introducing steady institutional buying flows that can provide support during retail-driven sell-offs. Consequently, analyzing Bitcoin’s price requires a multi-faceted approach that considers technical levels, on-chain data, derivatives market health, and traditional finance signals.

Historical Precedents and Bull Run Sustainability

Examining previous Bitcoin bull markets reveals a consistent pattern: significant corrections are not only common but necessary. The 2016-2017 bull cycle witnessed multiple drawdowns exceeding 30% before culminating in its peak. Similarly, the 2020-2021 cycle included a dramatic 55% correction in May-July 2021 before prices resumed their upward trajectory to new highs. A pullback of 20-40% from a cycle high, therefore, aligns with historical precedent rather than signaling a cycle break.

The critical question analysts now grapple with is whether fundamental drivers remain intact. Key supportive factors include:

• Continued Institutional Adoption: Steady inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
• Halving Cycle Dynamics: The 2024 halving’s supply shock effects are still unfolding.
• Network Fundamentals: Hash rate remains near all-time highs, signaling robust security and miner commitment.

If these core pillars remain strong, the argument for the $77,000 level representing a cyclical pullback low gains substantial credibility. The market’s ability to hold above the psychologically important $75,000 zone will be a key technical indicator watched closely in the coming weeks.

Conclusion

The recent Bitcoin price volatility, culminating in a swift plunge to $77,000, has crystallized a pivotal market narrative. Analyst PlanC’s assertion that this may be the “deepest pullback” of the current bull run finds support in historical cycle comparisons and the market’s rapid partial recovery. However, credible counter-arguments from figures like Peter Brandt and Jurrien Timmer caution against complacency, projecting potential further downside into 2026. For investors, the event serves as a stark reminder of Bitcoin’s inherent volatility and the importance of risk management, particularly regarding leverage. Ultimately, whether the $77,000 mark holds as the cycle low will depend on a confluence of macroeconomic conditions, institutional flow persistence, and broader cryptocurrency adoption trends. The coming months will provide critical data to resolve this central Bitcoin price debate.

FAQs

Q1: What is a “pullback” in a bull run?
A pullback is a temporary decline in an asset’s price within a longer-term upward trend. It is typically seen as a healthy consolidation that shakes out weak hands and allows the market to gather strength for its next leg higher.

Q2: Why do analysts compare current price action to 2018 or 2020?
Analysts use historical comparisons to identify recurring psychological and technical patterns in market cycles. Similarities in the depth, duration, and sentiment surrounding a drop can provide context for potential outcomes, though past performance never guarantees future results.

Q3: What does “capitulation” mean in crypto markets?
Capitulation refers to a period of intense, panic-driven selling where investors surrender and exit their positions at a loss, often marking a sentiment extreme. It is frequently viewed as a necessary cleansing event that sets the stage for a sustainable recovery.

Q4: How significant was the $2 billion liquidation event?
A $2 billion liquidation event is substantial and indicates excessive leverage was built up in the market. While causing short-term pain, such events reduce systemic risk by clearing out overextended positions, potentially leading to a more stable price foundation.

Q5: Should retail investors be concerned about predictions of a fall to $60K?
Long-term investors should focus on core fundamentals and personal risk tolerance rather than any single price prediction. Diversification, dollar-cost averaging, and avoiding excessive leverage are prudent strategies to navigate volatility, regardless of short-term price forecasts.