Bitcoin Price: Record $107K Close Sparks Hope for July Rally
Bitcoin wrapped up June with a significant achievement, setting a new record monthly closing price. This milestone has market watchers buzzing, especially as one analyst points to historical data suggesting a potential upward movement for the coming month. But is the path ahead clear, or are there signals suggesting caution?
Bitcoin Price Sets New Record Monthly High
June concluded with Bitcoin reaching an unprecedented monthly close just above $107,000. This wasn’t just a new high; it surpassed previous records set earlier in 2025, including May’s close around $104,600 and January’s at $102,450. This marks three consecutive months of ‘green’ candles, indicating sustained recovery since the price dip in April.
To put this into perspective, all three record six-figure monthly closes have occurred within 2025. The next highest was in November 2024, closing near $96,500, following notable gains after the US election.
Decoding the Spinning Top and Bitcoin Rally Potential
Despite the record Bitcoin close, the June monthly candle formed a ‘spinning top’ pattern. This technical formation, characterized by a small body and long wicks on both ends, often suggests market indecision – a struggle between buyers and sellers that could signal a potential trend reversal.
Looking back, a similar green spinning top in July 2024 was followed by a price decline the next month. However, historical technical patterns don’t always dictate future price action.
Analyst Tips 9% BTC Price Surge in July
Contrasting the technical indecision signal, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10X Research, sees a high probability for a Bitcoin rally in July. His analysis is based on historical performance.
According to Thielen, July has historically been strong for US equities, and Bitcoin often mirrors this trend. He notes that in seven out of the past ten Julys, Bitcoin has posted positive returns, with the average gain around 9%. Even in years with negative performance, the declines were relatively modest and stayed in single digits. This seasonal pattern, he suggests, creates a favorable environment for a potential move higher for the BTC price.
$107K Bitcoin: Weekly Resistance Holds Firm
While the monthly close was a record, other technical observations offer a different perspective. Analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ pointed out that the weekly candle closed just below a key resistance level at $108,890. The actual weekly close on Coinbase was around $108,380.
This close below resistance could indicate the formation of an ‘early-stage lower high resistance’ around current price levels. To invalidate this potential bearish signal, $107K Bitcoin would need to reclaim and hold the weekly resistance level as support on the daily chart.
What the Bitcoin Close at $107K Means
So, what do these mixed signals tell us? Bitcoin achieved a significant record monthly close, highlighting its strong performance year-to-date. Historical seasonal data suggests July could see a positive Bitcoin price movement, potentially around 9%.
However, the spinning top monthly candle pattern introduces a note of caution, suggesting potential indecision or reversal ahead. Additionally, the weekly chart shows the price currently sitting below a significant resistance level, which needs to be overcome for sustained upward momentum.
Currently, Bitcoin has remained tightly range-bound around the $107,000 mark over the past week, showing a slight dip in the last 24 hours. The market is clearly processing these conflicting signals.
The record close is undeniably bullish for the long term, but traders will be watching closely to see if the historical July trend plays out and if Bitcoin can successfully navigate the technical resistance levels in the short term.
