Unwavering Bitcoin Holders Defy $109K Sales: Cycle Tops Still Below Peak?

Are you wondering why Bitcoin isn’t reacting as expected to new all-time highs? Despite Bitcoin sales reaching a staggering $109,000, research indicates we are ‘significantly below’ typical cycle tops. This might sound surprising, but delve deeper, and you’ll uncover a fascinating story about long-term Bitcoin holders and their unwavering conviction.

Why Bitcoin Sales at $109K All-Time High Don’t Signal Cycle Peak

Recent findings from onchain analytics firm Glassnode reveal a compelling insight into the current Bitcoin market. Investors who jumped into Bitcoin between 2020 and 2022, even with a cost basis as low as $3,600, are demonstrating remarkable resilience. They are choosing to hold onto their assets, resisting the urge to sell even amidst significant profits and the inherent volatility of the BTC price. This behavior is a stark contrast to previous market cycles, suggesting a potentially more mature and less speculative market phase.

The ‘Unwavering’ 2020-2022 Bitcoin Holder Cohort

Glassnode’s research, shared on April 1st, highlights that the $110,000 price point wasn’t enticing enough for a large segment of Bitcoin holders to sell. Specifically, the focus is on those who entered the market between three and five years ago. This group, with a diverse cost basis ranging from the $3,600 lows of 2020 to the $69,000 highs of 2021, remains steadfast in their hodling strategy.

• Historical Data Points: Even though the wealth share of these 2020-2022 buyers has slightly decreased (by 3 percentage points since November 2024), it remains at historically high levels.
• Strong Conviction: This data strongly suggests that the majority of investors who entered during this period are not looking for quick profits. They are in it for the long haul.

The Realized Cap HODL Waves data, visualized in a chart from Glassnode, further clarifies this point. This metric segments the Bitcoin supply based on the last onchain movement of each coin. It effectively distinguishes between the 2020-2022 buyers and those who were in the market prior.

Contrasting Behavior: Pre-2020 Bitcoin Holders

Interestingly, the behavior of investors who bought Bitcoin before 2020 is quite different. Glassnode’s analysis reveals that:

• Profit Taking: Over two-thirds of investors who purchased Bitcoin 5-7 years ago (before 2020) exited their positions by the December 2024 peak.
• Lower Cost Basis Influence: This selling behavior is likely influenced by their significantly lower cost basis, making the profits at the 2024 peak highly attractive.

This contrast underscores a shift in market dynamics. The newer cohort of holders appears to have a different investment horizon and risk appetite compared to earlier investors.

Speculative Frenzy? Not According to Market Analysis

While Bitcoin has experienced price volatility, including reaching new record highs followed by pullbacks of up to 30%, the current market doesn’t resemble the speculative frenzies seen in previous cycle tops. Short-term holders (STHs), often considered the more speculative segment, are indeed sensitive to these price swings. However, their current participation levels tell a different story.

Key Indicators of a Tempered Bull Market

According to Glassnode’s market analysis, several factors indicate a more controlled bull market phase:

• STH Holdings: Short-Term Holders currently hold around 40% of Bitcoin’s network wealth. This is down from a peak of nearly 50% earlier in 2025.
• Historical Comparison: In past cycle tops, new investor wealth held by STHs surged to 70-90%. The current 40% is significantly lower.
• Distributed Bull Market: This suggests a bull market that is more distributed and less driven by speculative fervor compared to previous cycles.

The hodl waves data further supports this, illustrating the distribution of Bitcoin holdings across different age bands. The relatively lower participation of STHs compared to historical cycle peaks reinforces the idea that we are not yet in a phase of excessive market exuberance.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin’s Future?

The Bitcoin sales data and the behavior of long-term holders paint a picture of a maturing market. The unwavering conviction of 2020-2022 buyers, even at $109K all-time highs, suggests a strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. This resilience could have several implications:

• Reduced Sell-Side Pressure: With a significant portion of the supply held by long-term believers, the potential for massive sell-offs might be reduced.
• Foundation for Sustainable Growth: A market less driven by speculation and more by long-term holding can create a more stable foundation for sustained price appreciation.
• Potential for Further Upside: If long-term holders are waiting for even higher prices before considering selling, this could indicate significant untapped upside potential for Bitcoin.

Are We Approaching Cycle Tops?

While cycle tops are notoriously difficult to predict, the current market analysis suggests we are not mirroring previous peak formations. The tempered participation of short-term speculators and the strong holding behavior of mid-term investors indicate a different dynamic at play. It’s crucial to remember that the cryptocurrency market is inherently risky and volatile. However, understanding these onchain metrics can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential future trends.

Conclusion: The Resilient Bitcoin Market

In conclusion, despite Bitcoin reaching impressive sales figures and all-time highs, the market behavior, particularly the steadfastness of 2020-2022 holders, suggests we are not yet at a typical cycle top. The absence of a speculative frenzy, as indicated by hodl waves and STH participation, points towards a potentially more sustainable and mature bull market. While the future remains uncertain, the current market landscape, characterized by strong long-term holding and tempered speculation, offers a fascinating perspective on Bitcoin’s ongoing evolution.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly risky. Always conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.