VanEck’s Pivotal 2026 Forecast: Policy Clarity Sparks Major Turning Point for Risk Assets

Global investment firm VanEck has identified the first quarter of 2026 as a critical inflection point for global risk assets, marking a significant shift from years of market uncertainty. According to their latest analysis, clearer fiscal policy frameworks and more predictable monetary signals from major central banks are creating the most stable investment environment witnessed in recent memory. This emerging clarity allows institutional and retail investors to confidently reassess portfolios with a renewed focus on high-growth sectors including artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, private credit, and specific geographic opportunities like India.

VanEck’s 2026 Forecast: A New Era of Investment Clarity

VanEck analysts publicly communicated this outlook, emphasizing that markets now operate with a transparency absent since before the pandemic-era volatility. The firm specifically points to more defined government spending trajectories in the United States and Europe, which reduce the likelihood of disruptive fiscal surprises. Concurrently, major central banks, having navigated the post-2023 inflation cycle, are providing steadier forward guidance on interest rates. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent characterization of current rates as “normal” underscores this shift toward policy stability. Consequently, this environment enables more accurate risk pricing across asset classes, reducing the premium investors previously demanded for uncertainty.

Artificial Intelligence: Valuation Reset Creates Selective Opportunities

The artificial intelligence sector, following a substantial valuation correction in late 2025, presents newly attractive entry points for medium-term investors. VanEck notes that the broad sell-off filtered out speculative excess, creating opportunities in companies with robust fundamentals and clear paths to monetization. Importantly, investment interest has intensified around the physical infrastructure required to power AI growth, such as advanced computing, data centers, and notably, alternative energy sources including nuclear power. This focus on tangible infrastructure represents a maturation from broad-based speculation to a more calculated, thematic investment approach centered on long-term demand drivers.

Expert Insight: The Infrastructure-Led AI Investment Thesis

Market strategists observe that the AI investment narrative has decisively shifted from software applications to the underlying hardware and energy required to run them. This reflects a deeper understanding of the sector’s logistical constraints and capital intensity. The demand for reliable, high-capacity power is reshaping risk assessments, making companies involved in energy infrastructure pivotal to the AI ecosystem’s expansion. This selective exposure strategy, favored by VanEck, aims to capture growth while managing sector-specific volatility.

Private Credit and Fixed Income: Attractive Yields Post-Correction

Private credit markets, particularly within business development companies (BDCs), have regained investor attention after a challenging 2025. During that period, credit risk repricing and economic concerns led to significant volatility. However, VanEck’s analysis suggests that much of this risk is now reflected in current valuations. With yields remaining elevated relative to historical averages and a more stable economic outlook for 2026, the firm views private credit as a more compelling component of a diversified portfolio than it was just one year ago. The asset class offers a potential buffer against equity market fluctuations while providing income.

Gold and Bitcoin: Diverging Paths in a Reshaping Macro Landscape

VanEck’s report highlights sustained strength in gold, driven primarily by persistent central bank demand and a gradual, long-term trend of de-dollarization in global reserves. This institutional buying provides a solid floor for prices, with technical pullbacks consistently attracting further investment. The metal’s role as a non-sovereign store of value appears reinforced in the current geopolitical climate.

Conversely, Bitcoin’s trajectory presents a more complex picture. VanEck analysts caution that the cryptocurrency’s historically reliable four-year market cycle showed signs of breaking down in 2025, making near-term predictions less certain. The firm anticipates increased price volatility over the next three to six months as the market absorbs new dynamics, including its recent decoupling from traditional equity and gold correlations following a major deleveraging event in October 2025. Internally, views vary; while some executives like Matthew Sigel express confidence in Bitcoin’s cycle, others advocate caution.

The Long-Term Bitcoin Thesis Remains Intact

Despite near-term uncertainty, VanEck’s long-term research on Bitcoin remains decidedly bullish. The firm has previously published projections suggesting Bitcoin could reach approximately $2.9 million by 2050 under a scenario where it captures a meaningful share of global trade settlement volumes and central bank reserve assets. External analysts, such as Justin d’Anethan of Arctic Digital, note that current price action reflects healthier, lower-leverage market conditions compared to the speculative excess of 2024-2025, potentially laying a more sustainable foundation for future growth.

India: A Standout Long-Term Growth Narrative

Beyond sector-specific themes, VanEck singles out India as a high-conviction, long-term geographic opportunity. The investment case rests on a powerful combination of structural economic reforms, a favorable and youthful demographic profile, and steady GDP growth. Government initiatives in digital infrastructure, manufacturing, and financial inclusion are creating a scalable platform for domestic and international businesses. For global investors, India represents a strategic allocation to capture growth in one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, somewhat insulated from cyclical pressures in Western markets.

Conclusion

VanEck’s comprehensive analysis positions Q1 2026 as a definitive turning point, where improved policy clarity finally allows investors to move beyond reactive strategies and plan proactively for the next market cycle. The convergence of steadier monetary policy, defined fiscal paths, and reset valuations in key growth sectors like AI and crypto creates a unique window for portfolio repositioning. While challenges and volatility persist, particularly for assets like Bitcoin, the overarching narrative for early 2026 is one of renewed confidence and strategic opportunity across a diversified set of risk assets, from technological innovation in AI to structural growth in markets like India.

FAQs

Q1: What is the main reason VanEck sees Q1 2026 as a turning point?
VanEck cites the return of clarity in fiscal policy from governments and more predictable, steady signals from central banks on interest rates as the primary drivers. This reduces market uncertainty and allows for more confident long-term investment planning.

Q2: Why does VanEck find AI assets more attractive heading into 2026?
Following a significant price pullback in late 2025, valuations in the AI sector have reset, creating better entry points for investors. Interest has also shifted toward the essential infrastructure underpinning AI, such as power and computing, which offers more tangible growth metrics.

Q3: What is VanEck’s view on Bitcoin for 2026?
The firm holds a cautious near-term outlook due to a breakdown in Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, expecting choppy price action. However, its long-term projection remains extremely bullish, with a scenario analysis suggesting a potential value of $2.9 million by 2050 based on adoption metrics.

Q4: How does gold fit into VanEck’s 2026 investment themes?
Gold is viewed as a strengthening reserve asset, supported by continuous central bank purchases and a long-term trend of gradual de-dollarization. VanEck sees price dips as buying opportunities within this sustained bullish trend.

Q5: Why is India highlighted as a specific investment opportunity?
VanEck identifies India as a high-conviction, long-term growth story driven by a combination of proactive government reforms, a large and growing young population, and consistent economic expansion, making it a standout geographic bet.