Bitcoin Price: Is the BTC Bull Run Facing an Urgent End? 5 Crucial Factors This Week

The cryptocurrency market faces a pivotal moment. Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced significant volatility. Many investors wonder: Is the BTC bull run truly over? The last week of August brought notable shifts. Traders are now navigating multi-week lows. This article delves into the critical factors shaping the current Bitcoin price action. We explore key market indicators and expert opinions. Understanding these elements is vital for all crypto enthusiasts.

Bitcoin Price Weakness Sparks Market Jitters

The Bitcoin price recently dipped to multi-week lows. This move occurred as August drew to a close. Market participants are actively re-evaluating their price targets. Data from Crypto News Insights Markets Pro and TradingView highlights this volatility. Whipsaw price action has defined the market since Sunday. A flash volatility event took BTC/USD to $10,700. This level marked its lowest point since July 10. It served as a stark reminder for those with late long positions. Monitoring resource CoinGlass reported substantial liquidations. Over $640 million in crypto long liquidations occurred within 24 hours.

Crypto liquidations. Source: CoinGlass

Traders currently hold split views on the short-term outlook. Some anticipate a retest of previous all-time highs. They see this as a potential bounce point. Others predict a more complex scenario. Popular analyst Crypto Tony suggested a $110,000 target. He believes consolidation might follow this dip. This could then set the stage for the next upward move. However, market sentiment remains fragile. The immediate future for BTC/USD appears uncertain.

CME Gap Presents New Hope for Bulls Amidst Uncertainty

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted an important retest. He highlighted a significant CME gap. This gap formed in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market. It appeared over the weekend. “This is the largest we’ve seen in several weeks,” he stated. CME gaps frequently appear. Many of these gaps tend to fill on Monday or Tuesday. This observation offers some potential hope for bulls. Filling a gap often signals a price reversal. This could bring a short-term upward movement.

CME Bitcoin futures one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

However, not all analysts share this optimistic view. Fellow trader Jelle warned of even lower levels. He observed Bitcoin “murdering leveraged traders.” This activity occurred around range lows. He believes “the sharks are still hungry.” Jelle stressed the importance of price holding its current area. Failure to do so could lead to a fall into the previous range. This would then open up a retest of $100,000. CoinGlass exchange order-book data showed limited bid support. This was immediately below the price as Wall Street opened. Last week, Crypto News Insights reported strong conviction. Many believed $100,000 would remain unchallenged as support. The current price action tests this conviction significantly.

Bitcoin Whales Initiate Major Rotations and Profit-Taking

Sunday’s sudden Bitcoin price dive brought Bitcoin whales into focus. Current levels, still within 10% of all-time highs, attracted large players. They sought to realize profits from long-held coins. One entity notably sold a massive tranche of BTC over the weekend. This individual had held the coins for seven years. The sale caused the market to tank $4,000 in minutes. The market has yet to fully recover from this drop. Crypto intelligence firm Arkham reported this activity. Analytics account Lookonchain shared the data on X. The entity rotated from Bitcoin into Ether.

“In the past 5 days, they’ve deposited ~22,769 $BTC ($2.59B) to Hyperliquid for sale,” Lookonchain summarized. “Then bought 472,920 $ETH ($2.22B) spot and opened a 135,265 $ETH ($577M) long.” This entity’s BTC is now worth approximately $11.4 billion. This represents an astonishing profit margin of 1,675%. Such large movements by individual entities can significantly impact market dynamics. They often trigger broader market reactions.

BTC supply distribution by wallet entity. Source: Willy Woo/X

Bitcoin enthusiast Vijay Boyapati commented on the event. He called this whale distribution “healthy.” “No paper BTC conspiracies are required,” Boyapati stated. “The price has stalled because a number of whales have hit their magic number and are unloading.” He views this as a natural market process. Their finite supply requires selling for Bitcoin’s full monetization. “Massive blocks of supply, with enormous purchasing power, are being distributed,” he added. “This cycle is one of the greatest monetization events in history.” Statistician Willy Woo also weighed in. He highlighted the influence of oldest whales. “Why is BTC moving up so slowly this cycle?” he queried. Woo presented a chart showing BTC supply concentration. OG whales peaked their holdings in 2011. They acquired BTC at $10 or less. “It takes $110k+ of new capital to absorb each BTC they sell,” Woo explained. This distribution by whales has been evident. It occurred throughout the latest bull run phase. Glassnode data confirms this trend. As of Sunday, 2,000 addresses held between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. This corresponds to all but the largest “mega” whales. This number marked a new August high. It indicates a clear pattern of large holders taking profits.

Bitcoin whale address count. Source: Glassnode

Smaller Hodlers Continue Accumulating Amidst Crypto Market Analysis

Despite whale distribution, smaller Bitcoin hodlers show resilience. Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant provides reasons for optimism. Distribution is not yet widespread across all investor segments. Contributor BorisD summarized the situation in a “Quicktake” blog post. “After reaching its ATH at 124K, Bitcoin has entered a pullback phase,” he noted. He predicted the retracement might “continue for a while.” Unlike large Bitcoin whales, smaller hodler classes maintain an accumulation mindset. Specifically, wallets holding up to 10 BTC are adding exposure. This group shows continued faith in Bitcoin’s long-term value. They appear undeterred by recent price dips. This behavior suggests a strong belief in future appreciation.

Conversely, wallets holding between 10 and 100 BTC show distribution. They shifted to profit-taking when the price hit $118,000. Wallets between 100 and 1,000 BTC hold significant market influence. BorisD describes their behavior as balanced. They show both accumulation and distribution since $105,000. This reflects indecision in this crucial cohort. “This level acts as a critical support-turning zone,” he commented. Their actions often foreshadow broader market shifts. Therefore, monitoring this group is essential.

Bitcoin accumulation vs. distribution by wallet cohort. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant suggests distribution remains the dominant trend. However, its intensity is weakening as Bitcoin pulls back. The $105,000 level stands out as a strong support zone. A move below this region could trigger widespread fear. It would create significant market stress. This crypto market analysis reveals diverging strategies. Small investors buy the dip, while larger ones take profits. This dynamic creates a complex market environment. Investors must consider these varied behaviors.

Is the BTC Bull Run Truly Over? Technical Warnings Emerge

For some market participants, the question lingers: Is the BTC bull run truly over? Many harbor conservative views on future price action. They have reinforced their outlook. BTC/USD’s fall to early July levels supports their stance. Popular trader Roman provided recent analysis. He warned that high-timeframe signals suggest the bull run’s peak has passed. He cited a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The final “shoulder” element is still anticipated. “All we need is the reversal pattern setup,” he forecast. “Then we can potentially take shorts.” He believes traders will be caught on low-volume pumps. “The $BTC bull run is over,” Roman concluded starkly. This strong bearish sentiment suggests a prolonged downturn.

$BTC 1D The Head & shoulders reversal AKA the bull killer. HTF is bearish. All we need is the reversal pattern setup to potentially take shorts. They’ll get caught on the low volume pump once again. The $BTC bull run is over. pic.twitter.com/Q3rAet5YiP— Roman (@Roman_Trading) August 25, 2025

Earlier, Roman and others flagged declining volume. They also pointed to weakening Relative Strength Index (RSI) data. This supported the thesis that Bitcoin was losing momentum. Price made new highs, but RSI showed lower highs. This setup is a classic bearish divergence. It often precedes price corrections. Late last week, trading account ZAYK Charts used Wyckoff analysis. They put the potential downside target for BTC/USD at $95,000. “$BTC still moving exactly as Wyckoff predicted,” they updated. These technical indicators paint a cautious picture. They suggest significant downside risk remains for the Bitcoin price.

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: ZAYK Charts/X

Macroeconomic Factors Influence Bitcoin Price and Broader Markets

The Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge is due soon. This release comes at a critical time for economic policy. The July print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is expected Friday. It holds key importance for Fed officials. Markets also seek confirmation of interest-rate cuts next month. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole symposium. He delivered a surprising pivot from his previous hawkish stance. Risk assets surged immediately. Hopes of a rate cut gained significant momentum. This provided a temporary boost to markets.

However, the mood has since cooled. Plenty of inflation data remains before the mid-September rate decision. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows market odds. It puts a 0.25% cut at nearly 90%. This high probability reflects strong market expectations. Trading firm Mosaic Asset emphasized Powell’s language. They noted the Fed’s changing approach to its 2% inflation target. “If abandoning average inflation targeting means the Fed is becoming less tolerant of inflation above the 2% target, then you wouldn’t expect a dovish tone,” Mosaic summarized. This appeared in their “The Market Mosaic” newsletter. Upcoming inflation and payrolls reports are crucial. They will inform the Fed’s September rate-setting meeting. Mosaic suggested betting on multiple rate cuts might be “misplaced.” This could be a misstep as a future strategy. Therefore, investors watch these economic signals closely.

Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

Additionally, Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings could inject volatility. This affects both crypto and broader risk assets. A strong performance is widely anticipated. “Nvidia is set to close out an overall strong earnings season,” The Kobeissi Letter stated. “Attention is now shifting to the Fed.” The interconnectedness of traditional finance and crypto markets remains evident. These macro events can significantly influence the Bitcoin price and overall market sentiment.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.