XRP Price Momentum: On-Chain Data Confirms Bullish Control Towards a Potential $5 Target

The cryptocurrency market constantly presents dynamic shifts, and recent movements in the XRP price have captured significant attention. While XRP recently revisited the crucial $3 support level, a deeper dive into technical charts and comprehensive on-chain data strongly suggests that crypto bulls are still firmly in control. Many investors now ponder: Is a remarkable surge to $5 possible by Q4? This detailed XRP analysis explores the underlying factors driving this optimistic outlook.

XRP Price Action: Navigating Key Resistance and Support Levels

XRP posted an impressive 18% rally during the first half of September, climbing from $2.70 to a high of $3.18. However, the token faced a significant challenge, failing to breach the critical $3.20 resistance mark. This rejection occurred at the four-hour fair value gap on the sell side, causing XRP to slip back and retest the psychological $3 support level. Following the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut, XRP struggled to register a higher high above $3.18, which extended its short-term weakness and lined up another $3 retest. The altcoin is also currently grappling with maintaining its position above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which typically adds further selling pressure to its near-term momentum.

Experienced futures trader DOM highlighted the bulls’ inability to hold the $3.12 level earlier in the week. He identified this as a pivotal area for continuation toward $3.30. DOM stated, “Bulls failed to hold $3.12 area earlier in the week, which I stated would be the challenge for a push to $3.30. That idea remains, with all eyes on that level being flipped to support (battling now). No substantial passive resistance in the order books until that ~$3.30 target area.” Consequently, $3.30 stands as the immediate resistance level. For any meaningful continuation higher, bulls must decisively reclaim the $3.18 mark and convert it into a new support zone. This tactical battleground defines XRP’s immediate trajectory.

XRP six-hour chart. Source: Crypto News Insights/TradingView

Robust On-Chain Data Confirms Sustained Accumulation

Despite these short-term price setbacks, broader market signals and fundamental on-chain data strongly indicate sustained bullish momentum for XRP. One key indicator, the Net Holder Position Change, has shown a consistently positive trend since August 22. This significant shift followed a period of negative readings between July and early August, which coincided with profit-taking activities at higher price levels. Notably, accumulation has been most evident within the $2.70–$3 range, suggesting that savvy investors are strategically positioning themselves for future upside rather than exiting the market. This accumulation pattern signals a strong belief in XRP’s long-term potential, as large holders are increasing their stakes during price dips.

Similarly, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio provides additional validation of this transition phase. July witnessed the heaviest profit-taking of the current cycle, which consequently triggered the subsequent price decline. Since then, the ratio has largely flattened, but it recently experienced a sharp increase, marking its strongest surge since November 2024. This data point implies that much of the earlier selling pressure has now been absorbed by new demand. It also suggests that new cohorts of investors are likely entering the market, eager to capitalize on what they perceive as undervalued prices. When combined with the net holders’ accumulation, these on-chain indicators collectively paint a constructive long-term backdrop for XRP, reinforcing the idea that crypto bulls are consolidating their positions.

XRP Holder Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

XRP Realized Profit/Loss Ratio. Source: Glassnode

The Market Fractal: A Blueprint for XRP Price Growth

A compelling aspect of the current XRP analysis is its repeating market fractal, which serves as another powerful bullish anchor. The price structure observed in Q1 appears remarkably aligned with the current Q3 setup. Specifically, the $2.70 low in the current cycle coincides precisely with the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.5–0.618) retracement level. This recurring fractal suggests that XRP is faithfully following its expected cyclical pattern, thereby setting the stage for a potentially significant rally. Based on this historical alignment and technical projection, a substantial 60–85% rally in Q4 remains a strong possibility. Such a move would propel the XRP price into the ambitious $5.00–$5.50 range from its current level of approximately $3. This fractal pattern provides a historical precedent, bolstering confidence in future upward movements.

Historically, cryptocurrencies often exhibit these fractal patterns, where past price movements provide clues for future trends. The consistency of this particular fractal, especially its alignment with key Fibonacci levels, lends significant credibility to the projection. It implies that the market is behaving in a predictable manner, attracting more investors who recognize these technical signals. This analytical framework offers a powerful perspective on where XRP might be headed, providing a roadmap for potential gains. Investors closely monitor these patterns to anticipate market turns and capitalize on expected movements.

XRP one-day chart. Source: Crypto News Insights/TradingView

Why Crypto Bulls Remain Confident in XRP’s Trajectory

Despite recent fluctuations, the overall sentiment among crypto bulls regarding XRP remains overwhelmingly positive. This confidence stems from a combination of the strong accumulation seen in on-chain data, the validation from the repeating market fractal, and the underlying fundamental developments surrounding the asset. While short-term volatility is a natural characteristic of the cryptocurrency market, the long-term indicators suggest a robust foundation for growth. The sustained interest from large holders, evidenced by their net position changes, signifies a belief in XRP’s intrinsic value and future utility. Furthermore, the absorption of selling pressure, as indicated by the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, cleanses the market and prepares it for new upward movements.

The resilience of XRP’s support levels, particularly around the $3 mark, demonstrates strong buying interest whenever prices dip. This consistent demand prevents deeper corrections and sets the stage for future rallies. Moreover, the broader macroeconomic environment, while sometimes challenging, has not deterred long-term investors from accumulating XRP. They view any temporary dips as opportunities to strengthen their portfolios. This collective bullish sentiment, backed by verifiable data, creates a powerful momentum that could propel XRP to new highs in the coming months. The confluence of these factors paints a compelling picture for XRP’s future performance, making the $5 target seem increasingly plausible.

The Path Ahead: A Detailed XRP Analysis Towards $5

The journey towards a $5 XRP price involves overcoming immediate resistance levels and maintaining strong support. As established, the $3.30 mark presents the next significant hurdle. A decisive break above this level, ideally accompanied by strong trading volume, would confirm the bulls’ renewed strength and open the path towards higher targets. Following this, the market would likely eye previous highs and then the projected $5.00–$5.50 range indicated by the market fractal. This progression requires consistent buying pressure and continued positive sentiment from investors. The sustained accumulation highlighted by on-chain data will be crucial in fueling these upward movements, providing the necessary liquidity and demand.

Furthermore, any positive developments regarding XRP’s regulatory landscape could act as a powerful catalyst, potentially accelerating its price appreciation. Clarity and favorable rulings have historically had a significant impact on XRP’s valuation. Investors should closely monitor these external factors alongside the technical and on-chain metrics. Ultimately, the combination of strong technical setups, positive on-chain fundamentals, and potential external catalysts positions XRP favorably for substantial growth in the upcoming quarter. This comprehensive XRP analysis suggests that the current dips are merely temporary setbacks in a broader bullish trend, paving the way for exciting price action ahead. The potential for XRP to reach $5 or even higher by Q4 is a scenario that many market participants are now actively anticipating and positioning for.