Will Ethereum Price Drop to $1,200 or Rally in 2024?

As Ethereum (ETH) continues its months-long decline, analysts are divided on the cryptocurrency’s next price move. 

Some predict a further decline, potentially reaching $1,200 by the end of the year, while others anticipate a potential upward breakout. This piece explores the reasoning behind these differing positions. 

Ethereum May Fall to $1200 or Rise

In a post on X, crypto analyst and entrepreneur Benjamin Cowen noted that ETH is currently trading within a wedge pattern, formed by converging support and resistance lines that narrow as the price fluctuates. Cowen pointed out that ETH traded within a similar wedge pattern back in 2019.

What makes this significant is that ETH’s price fell back into the wedge just before the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut in over a decade. When the Federal Reserve implemented the rate cut, ETH broke below the wedge, causing a sharp price drop, and the ETH/BTC pair hit its bottom.

If 2024 follows the same trajectory as 2019, ETH could retrace within its current wedge and potentially break below it after the year’s first rate cut. Should this occur, ETH might drop to around $1,200.

“$1,200 by December is my guess. In 2016 and 2019, ETH / BTC broke down, and ETH / USD dropped 70% to 0.300 risk. 0.300 risk right now is $1208. That would represent a soft landing IMHO, then up in H1 2025,” Cowen wrote.

While the altcoin remains at risk of falling, the higher lows of the current wedge indicate that ETH is in a much stronger position now compared to 2019. This could mean that even if it does break below the wedge temporarily, the downside might be limited compared to previous cycles.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe does not share Cowen’s sentiments. He believes the altcoin will rise after several months of decline.

“The bullish divergence is still valid, and a higher low has been made. The downtrend of the past months is likely going to be broken upwards. That could be a significant push for the entire market,” van de Poppe wrote on X. 

Read more: 9 Best Places To Stake Ethereum in 2024

ETH Price Prediction: 11% Drop Is Still Possible

At press time, Ethereum is trading at $2,360, maintaining an uptrend since September 6 with a 6% price increase. Key momentum indicators on the one-day chart suggest rising demand for ETH.

For instance, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures liquidity flows, has risen and is now above the zero line, indicating significant buying activity in the market.

If this buying momentum continues, ETH could maintain its upward trend and aim to break past the resistance at $2,535. Should it succeed, the next target could be a 30-day high of $2,867.

Read more: How to Buy Ethereum (ETH) and Everything You Need to Know

However, any spike in profit-taking activity will cause the coin’s price to revisit its August 5 low of $2112. This would mean an 11% drop from its current value.