Solana ETF Approval: Can SOL Remarkably Outperform Ether?

The cryptocurrency market buzzes with excitement around exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Following the success of Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, many investors now ask: Can a US Solana ETF truly propel SOL to outperform Ether? This question is central to understanding future market dynamics and capital flows.

Solana ETF Approval: Paving the Way for Mainstream Access

Ether (ETH) currently holds a significant lead in the ETF race. Spot Ether ETFs began trading on July 23, 2024. These funds attracted approximately $107 million in first-day net inflows, creating a mainstream pathway for investors. However, Solana’s (SOL) market infrastructure is rapidly catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025. Additionally, options are slated for October 13, pending approval. These developments strengthen Solana’s market maturity.

Furthermore, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) adopted “generic listing standards” in September 2025. These standards streamline how exchanges can list spot commodity exchange-traded products (ETPs). This potentially widens the gate beyond just Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether. Outside the US, SOL already trades in regulated investment wrappers. For example, Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ offer such products. With this existing access, the crucial question remains: Can a US Solana ETF fuel lasting demand, allowing Solana to outperform Ether on both price and fundamentals?

Ether ETF Performance: A Precedent for Market Dynamics

Spot Ether ETFs began trading in the US on July 23, 2024. They recorded about $1 billion in trading volume and roughly $107 million in net inflows on their first day. This opened a mainstream channel for various investors, including registered investment advisers (RIAs) and institutions. However, this still trailed Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January.

Flows since then have shown cyclical patterns. Through mid-2025, ETH experienced periods of net creations followed by outflows. By late August and mid-September 2025, reports indicated renewed strength. Multi-week inflows into Ether products lifted total crypto assets under management (AUM). In short, ETFs improved access, but they did not eliminate market cycles. At times in 2025, Ether outperformed many large-cap crypto assets. This was supported by steady ETF demand and visible institutional accumulation. This pattern suggests that while ETFs do not alter core network fundamentals, they can influence which asset leads during capital rotation phases.

One design choice still matters: US ETH ETFs launched without staking. This limits their income potential compared with holding native ETH directly. The SEC is actively reviewing proposals to allow staking. However, as of October 2025, decisions across multiple issuers remain delayed. If staking is permitted, even partially, it could significantly shift the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct ownership. US exchanges publish an indicative net asset value (iNAV) approximately every 15 seconds. This allows traders to see where an ETF should be priced intraday.

SOL vs ETH: Fundamental Strengths and Risks

Solana has shown remarkable growth in usage. In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in network revenue. This marked its third consecutive quarter leading all Layer-1 (L1) and Layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, data showed Solana matched the combined monthly active addresses of all other major L1s and L2s. These are strong indicators of usage intensity. In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers. This represents a sharp rebound from late 2024 lows.

The supply of USDC on Solana stands at approximately $9.35 billion. Furthermore, the network’s total stablecoin supply more than doubled in early 2025, climbing from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February. Even so, Ethereum still carried the majority of value moved by stablecoins year-to-date. Roughly 60% as of mid-2025, this shows Solana’s gains are meaningful but not yet dominant. Cost and speed remain key draws for Solana. Sub-cent fees, 400-millisecond block times, and high throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and perpetual futures activity. It was also a focal point of 2025’s memecoin boom. This volume supports liquidity but also concentrates flows in speculative segments.

Two structural risks are worth watching when comparing SOL vs ETH:

• Reliability: A five-hour outage on February 6, 2024, required a coordinated restart and client patch (v1.17.20).
• Regulation: Past US SEC complaints have referenced Solana as an unregistered security. The Solana Foundation disputes this characterization. Outcomes in this area remain highly policy-dependent.

CME plans daily, monthly, and quarterly expiries for SOL options. This expands hedging menus for ETF market makers.

The Impact of Crypto ETFs on Market Flows

A US crypto ETF for Solana would likely bring several significant changes. First, approval would open SOL to mainstream brokerage and retirement channels. Registered investment advisers (RIAs) use these channels. This reduces operational friction for allocators and broadens the buyer base beyond crypto-native venues.

Second, listed derivatives give authorized participants (APs) and market makers crucial tools. They can hedge creations and redemptions, as well as run basis or relative-value trades. These mechanics help keep ETF prices close to their net asset value (NAV) and support day-one liquidity. Third, the SEC’s “generic listing standards” widen the path beyond BTC and ETH. This is true if sponsors satisfy the rules. Finally, ex-US demand signals are already positive. Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) show that regulated investment wrappers for Solana can attract investor interest. In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be included in Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs. Therefore, issuers use ETPs instead. This explains why “ETP” appears on SIX and London Stock Exchange (LSE) tickers.

Forecasting Solana Performance: Can SOL Truly Outperform?

The potential for Solana performance to surpass Ether hinges on several factors. Let’s consider different scenarios post-approval:

The Bull Case (Six to 12 months post-approval)

A timely US spot SOL ETF with strong early net creations could outpace Ether on total return. Two key levers would drive this:

• Broader Access: RIAs and brokerages gain exposure under the new generic listing standards.
• Improved Market Mechanics: Tighter spreads and greater capacity emerge as APs hedge via CME Solana futures and listed options.

The Base Case

Even if a SOL ETF launches strongly, flows may revert to tracking general risk appetite. Ether retains a structural institutional edge. This is thanks to its longer history, deeper allocator familiarity, and established ecosystem. Weekly fund flow fluctuations in crypto reflect how relative performance may be choppy rather than decisively tilted toward SOL.

The Bear Case

Timelines slipping or eligibility questions under the US SEC framework could dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity might soften. APs could run smaller books despite the availability of derivatives, limiting creations. In this scenario, Solana would likely underperform Ether. Ether already benefits from a more mature distribution. Some regulators have also expressed concerns about reduced case-by-case scrutiny under the generic listing standards. This adds policy uncertainty for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.

Key Metrics to Watch for Solana Performance

If a US spot SOL ETF is approved, the real story will unfold in its aftermath. Key signals to watch are straightforward:

• Do creations and redemptions show persistent demand?
• Does CME open interest and options activity deepen liquidity?
• Do onchain metrics like active users, fee revenue, stablecoin settlement, and developer growth hold up beyond speculative bursts?

If these needles move together, the odds of SOL outpacing ETH rise sharply. A Solana ETF would remove a major access bottleneck. It would also arrive with stronger market infrastructure than past cycles. Yet, Ether has already proven its ability to attract billions through ETFs. It also anchors the institutional conversation. ETH remains the benchmark, and its flows, though cyclical, demonstrate its staying power. Whether Solana truly outperforms will depend less on hype and more on whether ETF inflows translate into sustained onchain adoption. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.