Dire Ethereum Price Prediction: Is the ETH Downtrend Cursed to Plunge into 2025?

Is the dream run for Ethereum coming to a screeching halt? Recent market analysis paints a rather grim picture for Ethereum, especially when pitted against Bitcoin. Despite several attempts to bounce back, Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), seems trapped in a persistent downtrend, raising serious concerns about its price trajectory well into 2025. Could this be a temporary dip, or are we witnessing a deeper, more prolonged correction for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency? Let’s delve into the data and expert opinions to understand the forces driving this potential extended downturn.

Why is the Ethereum Price Prediction Turning Bearish?

Ethereum’s struggle is becoming increasingly evident when we examine its performance against Bitcoin (BTC). The ETH/BTC pair has repeatedly entered oversold territory in recent months, yet these dips haven’t translated into sustained price recoveries. This situation mirrors past market behaviors, suggesting a pattern that could unfortunately repeat itself in the coming quarters of this year. Several factors are contributing to this bearish outlook on the Ethereum price prediction:

• Recurring Breakdowns: Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has experienced multiple breakdowns, with significant losses occurring in quick succession. These repeated failures to hold support levels indicate strong and persistent selling pressure.
• Technical Indicators in Red: Key technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 3-day timeframe consistently remain below 30. While this typically signals oversold conditions and potential bounces, historical data reveals that these oversold dips have failed to establish a definitive bottom for Ethereum.
• Moving Averages Pointing Downwards: Both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for ETH/BTC are trending downwards. This confirms a lack of bullish momentum and reinforces the prevailing bearish sentiment in the market.

Adding to these technical concerns, market analysts are highlighting the absence of bullish divergence on Ethereum’s weekly chart. This lack of confirmation further solidifies the negative outlook for ETH downtrend.

ETH/BTC Analysis: Unpacking the ‘Cursed’ Downtrend

The term “cursed downtrend” isn’t just dramatic; it reflects a concerning reality when we compare Ethereum’s performance to the broader crypto market. The weakness in the ETH/BTC analysis is further underscored by:

• Persistent ETF Outflows: Spot Ethereum ETFs in the US are witnessing continuous outflows. In March alone, net outflows reached 9.8% of total net flows, amounting to $2.54 billion. This contrasts sharply with Bitcoin ETFs, which saw a smaller net outflow decrease of 2.35% ($35.74 billion) during the same period.
• Sluggish Onchain Activity: Ethereum’s gas fees, a measure of network activity, are drastically down. Median gas consumption on the mainnet has plummeted to around 1.12 GWEI, a staggering 50-fold decrease compared to the previous year. This decline in gas fees indicates reduced activity on the Ethereum network, despite previous ETH price rallies.

Data from Nansen, a data analytics platform, supports this observation. Their report highlights that despite ETH price rallies in 2024, on-chain activity, as gauged by gas consumption, hasn’t fully recovered. This suggests a shift of activity towards alternative blockchains like Solana and Layer-2 solutions, potentially diverting demand away from Ethereum.

Crypto Market Forecast: Ethereum vs. Bitcoin and Altcoins

The current crypto market forecast suggests a cautious outlook for Ethereum, particularly when weighed against Bitcoin and other altcoins. Nansen expresses a cautiously bearish stance on ETH, citing an unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to BTC and lower-valued altcoins with specific market niches. This sentiment is further reinforced by:

• Weak Futures Volume: Demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is visibly lower in futures market data. While Bitcoin futures volume has rebounded significantly, Ethereum’s trading activity remains largely stagnant.

This divergence in futures volume highlights a potential lack of investor confidence in Ethereum’s near-term price appreciation compared to Bitcoin, and potentially other segments of the crypto market.

Ethereum 2025 Forecast: Will the Downtrend Extend?

Looking ahead to the Ethereum 2025 forecast, the technical charts present a concerning picture. The ETH/BTC pair is currently forming a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart. This bearish pattern typically signals a continuation of the downtrend after a period of consolidation.

Historically, bear pennants resolve when the price breaks below the lower trendline, leading to a price drop equivalent to the height of the preceding downtrend. Applying this pattern analysis to ETH/BTC suggests a potential downside target of 0.01968 BTC for April. This represents a further 15% decrease from current levels, intensifying concerns about the depth and duration of the Ethereum downtrend.

Adding to these bearish signals, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs maintain their sharp downward trajectory, with the ETH/BTC pair trading significantly below these key moving averages. This technical setup reinforces the prevailing bear market structure for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.

Is There Any Hope for Ethereum?

While the current analysis paints a bleak picture, it’s crucial to remember that market dynamics can shift. A potential bullish invalidation could occur if ETH/BTC manages to break above the bear pennant’s upper resistance line and successfully flips the 50-day EMA into a support level. This would signal a potential change in momentum and could offer a glimmer of hope for a reversal of the current downtrend. However, until such a bullish breakout materializes, the prevailing sentiment remains cautiously bearish for Ethereum’s price trajectory against Bitcoin.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are inherently risky, and readers are advised to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.