Bitcoin Supply: Explosive Price Surge Potential Predicted by Sygnum Bank
Are you watching the crypto market? Something significant is happening with the Bitcoin supply that could have major implications for the Bitcoin price. A recent report from Sygnum Bank highlights a dramatic tightening of available Bitcoin, suggesting conditions are ripe for substantial price movements.
Why the Bitcoin Supply is Shrinking
According to Sygnum Bank’s June 2025 outlook, the liquid Bitcoin supply has decreased by a notable 30% over the past 18 months. This reduction is primarily driven by increased demand from large players and strategic long-term holdings.
- Institutional Bitcoin Acquisition: More financial institutions and corporations are buying Bitcoin, pulling it off exchanges and into cold storage or dedicated investment vehicles.
- Bitcoin ETF Impact: The launch and growth of Bitcoin ETFs have created a straightforward way for large capital to access Bitcoin, leading to significant coin accumulation by fund managers.
- Corporate and State Reserves: Companies and even some US states are exploring or implementing strategies to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset, further reducing the circulating supply available for trading.
This consistent withdrawal of Bitcoin from easily accessible platforms like exchanges means there are fewer coins available to meet growing demand. Since late 2023, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have fallen by about 1 million BTC, a trend that continues.
Institutional Bitcoin Demand Meets Geopolitical Factors
The surge in Institutional Bitcoin interest isn’t occurring in a vacuum. Geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties are also playing a role. Concerns around the weakening US dollar and increasing US debt levels are pushing investors towards alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold. Sygnum notes that the recent sell-off in US Treasurys has coincided with increased demand for these safe-haven assets, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role in diverse portfolios.
Could a Bitcoin ETF Trigger a Price Breakout?
While institutional buying is a steady force, the emergence of new acquisition strategies, like funds issuing equity or debt to buy Bitcoin, accelerates the supply squeeze. Furthermore, the potential for states to hold Bitcoin reserves, as seen with legislation in New Hampshire and likely Texas, alongside international interest from places like Pakistan and the UK, could act as major catalysts. Sygnum suggests that official reserve purchases, when they happen, will boost demand and send a strong signal to the market, potentially triggering significant upside for the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Price Volatility Profile is Changing
Sygnum also points to an interesting shift in Bitcoin’s volatility. Over the last three years, upside volatility has consistently been greater than downside volatility. This indicates a maturing market where positive price movements tend to be stronger than negative ones, a characteristic often associated with increasing institutional participation and confidence in the asset class.
Beyond Bitcoin: The Wider Crypto Market
While Bitcoin is the primary focus, the report also touches on the broader crypto market. Ether (ETH), for example, is showing renewed momentum. Recent network upgrades like Pectra are driving revenue growth and attracting major financial institutions interested in building tokenization platforms on Ethereum and its layer-2 networks. This suggests a general positive sentiment returning to key parts of the crypto market.
Conclusion: Prepare for Potential Bitcoin Price Surges
The confluence of a shrinking Bitcoin supply, robust Institutional Bitcoin demand, the impact of the Bitcoin ETF, potential state adoption, and favorable geopolitical winds creates a compelling picture. Sygnum Bank’s analysis suggests these factors are setting the stage for potential demand shocks and significant upside volatility in the Bitcoin price. Investors should be aware of these tightening supply dynamics as they could be a major driver of future market movements in the crypto market.
