Bitcoin Price Skyrockets to $83.5K: Are Pro Traders Finally Bullish?
Hold on to your hats, crypto enthusiasts! Bitcoin just staged a dramatic comeback, surging to a stunning $83,500. This exciting jump has the crypto world buzzing: Are professional BTC traders finally turning bullish? Let’s dive into the latest market analysis to understand what’s fueling this surge and whether this optimism is here to stay for crypto investors.
Is the Bitcoin Price Surge a Sign of a Bullish Turnaround?
April 9th was a day of dramatic shifts in both US equities and crypto markets. The catalyst? Former US President Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, excluding China. This news acted like a shot of adrenaline for Bitcoin, propelling the Bitcoin price upwards by an impressive 5% in under an hour. This surge allowed Bitcoin to reclaim the $83,000 mark, a level unseen since April 6th.
While the S&P 500 celebrated with an 8% gain, the crypto derivatives market is showing a more cautious optimism. BTC traders are keenly observing the movements of US long-term government bonds, suggesting a blend of hope and hesitation.
| Metric | Observation |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 Gain | 8% on April 9th |
| Bitcoin Price Surge | 5% in under an hour, reaching $83,000 |
| Bitcoin Derivatives | Cautious optimism, not fully bullish yet |
Futures Premium: A Glimmer of Growing Confidence?
Let’s examine the Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. This metric briefly exceeded the neutral 5% threshold, hinting at growing bullishness, but it struggled to maintain that momentum. Initially, skepticism lingered regarding the US Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts throughout the year. However, the futures premium has notably risen from the 3% level seen on March 31st. This increase suggests a gradual rise in confidence among Bitcoin bulls, especially after multiple attempts to push prices below $76,000 were unsuccessful.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
Why Are Bitcoin Traders Still Wary Despite the Price Jump?
The cautious sentiment among BTC traders can be partially explained by the release of the Federal Reserve Committee’s (FOMC) meeting minutes from March 18-19 on April 9th. These minutes highlighted concerns about stagflation – a situation combining stagnant economic growth with high inflation. This macroeconomic worry is impacting market sentiment.
According to the CME FEDWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates below 4% by September 17th significantly decreased from 97.6% on April 8th to 69.7% on April 9th. This shift reflects growing uncertainty about the pace and extent of potential rate cuts, making crypto investors slightly uneasy.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield: A Source of Bitcoin Trader Worry
Traders are particularly concerned about the volatility and potential weakening of the 10-year US Treasury yield. A declining yield can signal reduced confidence in the government’s ability to manage its increasing debt. Economist Peter Boockvar of The Boock Report points to the 4.40% level in the 10-year yield as a critical point. He suggests that investors are worried about “foreigners will continue to reduce their holdings of US Treasurys,” which could further destabilize the situation.
US 10-year Treasury yield. Source: TradingView / Crypto News Insights
Rising bond yields mean that investors demand higher returns from the US government for lending money. This increased cost of borrowing can create a vicious cycle, potentially weakening the US dollar and adding to macroeconomic uncertainty. This broader economic landscape is directly influencing Bitcoin options markets and the cautious stance of BTC traders.
Bitcoin Derivatives: Are Bulls Lacking True Conviction?
Bitcoin derivatives markets offer further insights into trader sentiment. When a market correction is anticipated, put (sell) options become more expensive, pushing the 25% delta skew metric above 6%. Conversely, in bullish phases, this metric typically dips below -6%.
Bitcoin 1-month options 25% delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch
On April 9th, the Bitcoin options delta skew spiked to 12% initially, following China’s tariff retaliation announcement. However, this quickly reversed after President Trump’s tariff pause, returning to a neutral 3%. This rapid shift indicates that options markets are currently pricing in equal chances for both upward and downward price movements. It also signals a potential end to the bearish trend that started around March 29th.
Perpetual Futures Funding Rates: Retail Optimism or Just Neutral?
To gauge if this lack of strong bullish sentiment extends beyond monthly futures and options, we can look at leverage demand in perpetual futures (inverse swaps). These contracts closely mirror spot prices and use an 8-hour funding fee mechanism. In neutral market conditions, this funding rate usually fluctuates between 0.4% and 1.4% over a 30-day period.
Bitcoin perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: Laevitas.ch
On April 9th, the 30-day Bitcoin futures funding rate increased to 0.9%, reaching its highest point in over six weeks. This rise could suggest increased buying activity from retail crypto investors. However, it’s important to note that this level still remains within the neutral range. The consistency across various BTC derivatives metrics implies that while the tariff pause provided some relief, it wasn’t enough to fully restore bullish confidence, particularly with ongoing trade tensions involving China.
What Will Spark a Truly Bullish Bitcoin Market?
The question remains: what will it take for BTC traders to fully embrace a bullish outlook? Reduced macroeconomic uncertainty is likely key. Specifically, a decrease in the US 10-year Treasury yield could play a vital role in shifting market sentiment. For now, the market seems to be in a state of watchful waiting, cautiously optimistic but not yet fully convinced of a sustained Bitcoin price rally.
Disclaimer: This market analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of Crypto News Insights.
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