Bitcoin Price Faces Perilous September: Gold’s Stunning Breakout Signals Trouble
The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with anticipation and concern as September begins. Bitcoin price recently hit new multi-week lows. This development casts a shadow over the digital asset landscape. Meanwhile, gold is experiencing a significant breakout. Many analysts consider this ‘very bearish’ for Bitcoin. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors. We delve into the five key factors influencing Bitcoin this week.
Bitcoin Price Action: Navigating New Lows
Bitcoin started the week by setting new local lows. Data from Crypto News Insights Markets Pro and TradingView confirms this. The price dropped to $107,270. However, a subsequent bounce took the pair toward $110,000. This volatility is characteristic of low-volume weekend and public holiday trading. Traders currently express a tense mood. Some wait for a more convincing floor. They even anticipate a retest of the $100,000 support level. Others target upside liquidity on exchange order books. Consequently, with the market overwhelmingly short, a ‘squeeze’ to target these positions is increasingly of interest.
Source: Crypto News Insights/TradingView
Lourenço VS, a trader, shared his views. “Above the 92k extreme target, these are the supports I´m seeing for Bitty,” he tweeted. “I doubt it will slice through all of these.” Popular trader CrypNuevo also weighed in. “Short liquidations are stacking between $112k – $115k,” he confirmed on X. CrypNuevo correctly anticipated a drop to the $107,200 zone. This was based on bid liquidity. He continued, “If this turns into a deeper pullback, I’d expect $100k to get hit.” This is because $100k is a psychological level. He added, “A lot of long orders would stack at $100k and a wick lower to $94k would make sense.” This move would hit stop losses and liquidations. It would also fill a small downside CME gap. Nevertheless, CrypNuevo described current lows as a ‘deviation’. He eyes another CME gap at $117,000. Data from CoinGlass shows the $110,000 zone as popular. Price ate into overhead liquidity with its Monday reversal.
Source: CrypNuevo/X
Source: CoinGlass
Macroeconomic Headwinds Shaping BTC Outlook
US markets remained closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. This leaves traders waiting until Tuesday. They will then assess the impact of recent confusion over government tariffs. Late last week, a federal appeals court declared President Donald Trump had overstepped his authority. This occurred during the tariffs’ implementation. The arrangements are now in limbo. The event sparked a swift reaction in crypto. However, it was announced after futures markets had already closed. Trump subsequently signaled he would fight to keep the tariffs in place. He warned the US would otherwise become a ‘third world nation’.
Source: Truth Social
Volatility is already overdue. Risk-asset traders will also monitor this week’s macroeconomic data. This leads up to the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. Unemployment claims are of key interest this week. The Fed juggles resurgent inflation markers and weakening labor-market cues. “It’s all about the labor market this week,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized on X. “This will mark the last week of labor market data before the big September Fed meeting.” Markets remain confident that the September 17 meeting will deliver rate cuts. This allows liquidity to flow into risk assets. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows the odds of a 0.25% cut at over 90% on Monday. “After cutting rates by 1.0% in late 2024, the Fed has been on hold for the past eight months,” Mosaic Asset summarized. This was in its latest edition of ‘The Market Mosaic’. “Concerns over the labor market is the primary catalyst for cutting rates.” However, it added, “the Fed might not get too far if inflation holds up.” This complex environment significantly influences the overall BTC outlook.
Source: CME Group
Source: CME Group
Gold vs Bitcoin: A Striking Divergence
While Bitcoin and altcoins stall, one safe-haven asset outperforms. Gold price reached $3,489 per ounce on Monday. It is now just inches from all-time highs seen on April 22. At that time, Bitcoin was recovering from a trip to sub-$75,000 lows. On the day of gold’s new record, Bitcoin itself jumped 6.7%. It closed near $93,500. Kobeissi noted unusual weekend trading activity on XAU/USD. It surged into the weekly close and continued into Labor Day. “Gold on a casual Sunday night on a 3-day weekend: Rate cuts are coming into 3%+ inflation,” The Kobeissi Letter tweeted. Mosaic Asset continued, “Upside inflation surprises may frustrate the Fed.” Yet, it added, “it could be a huge catalyst for the next uptrend phase in gold prices.” Mosaic noted that last week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index print cemented gold’s latest rebound. “That’s happening as gold’s historical seasonality is becoming more of a bullish tailwind as well,” it added. September is gold’s second-strongest month of the year over the past half century. Among gold bugs, a familiar tone has emerged. Peter Schiff, the well-known Bitcoin skeptic, underscored the divergence. “Gold and silver breaking out is very bearish for Bitcoin,” he told X followers. He warned that BTC was “poised to go much lower.” This highlights a significant contrast in the Gold vs Bitcoin narrative.
Source: Crypto News Insights/TradingView
Institutional Interest and Bitcoin ETFs: Outflows Persist
Bitcoin heading below its old all-time highs starts to take its toll on investment habits. Data from UK-based investment firm Farside Investors confirms this. On Friday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $126.7 million. This marked a late turnaround for what had otherwise been a promising week. Institutional buyers had added BTC exposure. This occurred despite BTC price making new lower lows. Zooming out, however, the picture looks more precarious. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, reported multi-month lows in institutional acquisition. “Institutional buying of Bitcoin has plunged to its lowest level since early April,” he commented. This accompanied Capriole’s own data. The numbers nonetheless show combined institutional demand still equals around 200% of the new BTC supply added by miners each day. In August, meanwhile, the ETFs saw their second-worst month on record. Network economist Timothy Peterson notes these totaled $750 million. “Bitcoin ETFs endured $750 million in withdrawals in August, the second worst month on record,” Peterson stated. This consistent outflow from Bitcoin ETFs is a concerning trend.
Source: Farside Investors
Source: Capriole Investments
Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Seasonal Trends and Crypto Market Analysis for September
Bitcoin now stands at the start of what is traditionally its worst-performing month. As Crypto News Insights continues to report, September has seen average returns of -3.5% for BTC/USD. The ‘best’ of the past twelve years only achieved 7.3% gains. Bitcoin sealed its fourth consecutive ‘red’ August with the monthly candle close. This capped 6.5% losses. “Seasonality is a real thing,” Peterson commented. He shared a chart comparing Bitcoin bull markets. “Bitcoin has followed seasonality for 15 years; the equity markets, over 100 years.” He added, “It repeats and can’t be arbitraged away because things like the tax year, school calendar, and weather/agricultural cycles are fixed.” An accompanying chart underscored the lackluster moves seen in September. This held true even during Bitcoin’s most bullish years. Investor Mark Harvey noted that a red August marks a new first for Bitcoin in a post-halving year. Harvey suggested this was “evidence that $BTC is no longer following the 4-year halving cycle.” He attributed this to recent institutional adoption. He further suggested that it was not necessarily a bearish signal. This comprehensive crypto market analysis suggests a challenging period ahead.
Source: CoinGlass
Source: Timothy Peterson/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
