Bitcoin Price Soars: Eyes Record Monthly Close Amid Bull Market Momentum

The cryptocurrency world watches closely as Bitcoin price stages a significant rebound. This movement sets the stage for a potentially historic monthly close. Market participants are analyzing crucial developments this week. These factors could shape the immediate future of the Bitcoin bull market. A welcome recovery occurred as October nears its end. Bitcoin regained strength, challenging previous dips from all-time highs. Bulls executed a much-needed comeback, pushing prices to $114,500 for the weekly close. Yet, some traders remain cautious despite the impressive recovery.

Bitcoin Price Action: A Resilient Weekly Rebound

Bitcoin delivered a strong performance for bulls into the weekly close. Data from Crypto News Insights Markets Pro and TradingView confirms this upward trend. BTC/USD sealed a rebound, reaching $114,500. This move also reclaimed the crucial 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). The 21-week EMA serves as a critical technical indicator. It represents the average price over the last 21 weeks. This gives more weight to recent data. Traders widely consider it a dynamic support or resistance level. A sustained move above this EMA often signals bullish momentum. Conversely, falling below it can indicate a bearish shift. Its reclamation by Bitcoin is therefore a significant positive sign for market participants.

[CHART: BTC/USD one-hour chart with 21-week EMA. Source: Crypto News Insights/TradingView]

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted its importance. He noted that holding this level is vital moving forward. Rekt Capital also observed Bitcoin’s position for a positive weekly close. This occurred above the 21-week EMA. A recent breakout from an Ascending Triangle on the Daily timeframe enabled this positive stance. An Ascending Triangle is a bullish continuation pattern. It forms when a rising trendline connects higher lows. A horizontal line connects resistance points. A breakout typically signals further upward movement. He shared this analysis on X, emphasizing the breakout’s significance.

“Bitcoin is positioned for a positive Weekly Close above the 21-week EMA (green) The recent breakout from the Ascending Triangle on the Daily timeframe has enabled this positive position on the Weekly timeframe”

He further pointed out Bitcoin’s strong rebound from the Macro Range Low. The asset is still consolidating within its Monthly Range. Bitcoin now has a chance. It could turn the September Monthly Highs into new support levels. This could happen by month’s end. This development would solidify a stronger foundation for future gains.

[CHART: BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X]

Analyzing the Potential BTC Monthly Close

Despite its impressive recovery, Bitcoin struggled to convince many market participants. Some traders believe the bull market has not fully returned. Trader Roman, for instance, reiterated weakness on higher time frames. He cited low trading volume and bearish divergences on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI is a momentum oscillator. It measures the speed and change of price movements. Bearish divergences occur when price makes a higher high, but RSI makes a lower high. This often suggests a potential price reversal. Roman warned of a potential “Head & Shoulders” bearish reversal setup. This setup validates on a break below the $109,000 neckline. A Head & Shoulders pattern is a classic bearish reversal signal. It consists of three peaks. The middle peak (head) is the highest. The two outer peaks (shoulders) are lower. A break below the neckline confirms the pattern.

[CHART: BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Roman/X]

He expressed his firm belief. Higher time frames show exhaustion. He does not anticipate higher prices immediately. The market will reveal if this leads to a reversal or further consolidation. Trading account HTL-NL also placed BTC/USD in an expanding triangle formation. This analyst argued that the overall market situation remained unchanged after the recent uptick. An expanding triangle pattern indicates increasing volatility. It suggests indecision in the market. Volatility returned, as data from CoinGlass showed. Price sliced through liquidation levels both above and below. This signifies active trading and heightened market movements.

[CHART: BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass]

Therefore, the upcoming BTC monthly close carries significant weight. A strong close above key levels could solidify bullish sentiment. Conversely, a weaker close might confirm trader caution. This crucial period will provide clearer direction. It will inform whether current price action represents a true recovery or merely a temporary bounce.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Federal Reserve Rate Cut & Trade Deals

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision is a major macroeconomic event this week. Markets are betting on positive outcomes from this meeting. Inflation data is absent due to a government shutdown. Consequently, the Fed has less information than usual for rate decisions. Nevertheless, markets confidently expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to opt for a 0.25% cut. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool places these odds at over 95%. A rate cut makes borrowing cheaper. This can stimulate economic activity. It also tends to make riskier assets, like cryptocurrencies, more attractive to investors seeking higher returns.

[SCREENSHOT: Fed target rate probabilities for October FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group]

The sole data print released, last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), bolstered the risk-asset bull case. It showed inflation below expectations. Lower inflation often encourages investment in assets like Bitcoin. This is because the purchasing power of fiat currency is less eroded. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized the week as “huge.” Significant corporate earnings reports will add to potential market volatility. Companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are due to report. These reports can influence broader market sentiment. They often impact investor appetite for digital assets.

US-China Trade Deal Boosts Crypto Market Analysis

Another key topic on the radar is the US-China trade deal. The threat of tariffs caused crypto and stocks to tumble earlier this month. However, Washington announced a near-completion deal over the weekend. US President Donald Trump will meet with China’s Xi Jinping on Thursday. This meeting aims to finalize the agreement. Stocks futures surged at the week’s start. This news removed a major hurdle for the bull market’s continuation. The S&P 500 added over $3 trillion since its October 10th low. This followed President Trump’s 100% China tariff announcement. Kobeissi called it “the most profitable market of all time.”

[CHART: S&P 500 chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X]

Reduced trade tensions and a potential Fed rate cut generally benefit risk assets. This includes cryptocurrencies. Such macroeconomic shifts often influence investor sentiment. They provide a more favorable environment for growth assets. Therefore, they become critical factors in any comprehensive crypto market analysis. These developments create a backdrop of cautious optimism. This supports the recent positive movements in Bitcoin.

AI Predicts Higher Bitcoin Price Targets

Network economist Timothy Peterson offered more optimism for Bitcoin bulls. He highlighted the direct influence of rate policy on Bitcoin price cycles. Cutting cycles, he argued, inherently boost the bull case. “Interest rates still too high, but QE coming,” he forecasted. QE, or quantitative easing, refers to central-bank liquidity injection methods. It involves large-scale asset purchases. This increases the money supply and lowers interest rates. Such policies can inflate asset prices, including Bitcoin.

Peterson is known for his research linking Bitcoin’s network expansion to long-term price floors. He applies Metcalfe’s law to Bitcoin. Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system. In Bitcoin’s context, this means as more users join the network, its value increases exponentially. This theoretical framework provides a long-term bullish outlook.

[CHART: BTC/USD vs. Metcalfe’s law chart. Source: Timothy Peterson/X]

“Addresses/Metcalfe’s Law is how Bitcoin is valued,” he explained. “This trend is up. There is no bubble. All dips temporary, we eventually go higher.” Peterson also revealed the latest readings from an AI simulation. This model forecasts near-term BTC price action. It set $115,000 as the new focal point. Moreover, $125,000 is a credible target before October’s end. The model’s readings have only slightly reduced. This occurred despite recent downside, which saw BTC/USD briefly touch $102,000 on Binance. This AI-driven outlook provides a compelling perspective. It suggests potential for continued upward movement in Bitcoin price. These predictions offer a hopeful counterpoint to the prevailing market caution.

[CHART: AI BTC price prediction chart. Source: Timothy Peterson/X]

Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Back? Examining Uptober Performance

With price volatility still high, Bitcoin’s 2025 “Uptober” performance hangs in the balance. At $115,000, BTC/USD is approximately 1% higher than its October opening level. This helps avoid a “red” month, which would be unexpected for Uptober. “Uptober” is a colloquial term among crypto traders. It refers to October’s historical tendency for positive Bitcoin returns. This year’s marginal gain keeps the tradition alive, albeit barely.

[SCREENSHOT: BTC/USD monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass]

Despite this, October’s performance remains below optimal. Crypto News Insights reported average gains of 20% since 2013 for this month. Market participants are therefore focusing on a major comeback next month. Trader Kyle Chassé expressed anticipation for “Growvember.” This reflects hopes for stronger gains in November. Trader Daan Crypto Trades predicted an “interesting” monthly close. He noted that sentiment in both September and October contradicted price action. “Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has opened & closed within a small 8% price range during the past 4 months,” he told X followers. “A bigger move is coming at some point. I’m assuming the end of 2025 is going to be more volatile than the past few months.”

[SCREENSHOT: Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me]

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently indicates “neutral” market sentiment. This index measures market emotions. It uses various factors like volatility, market momentum, and social media sentiment. A neutral reading suggests balanced investor behavior. The one-month chart, however, shows a fresh record in the making. At $115,750, BTC/USD will achieve its highest monthly close in history. This milestone would strongly suggest the continuation of the Bitcoin bull market. Such a record close would likely boost investor confidence. It could signal a sustained upward trend.

[CHART: BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Crypto News Insights/TradingView]

Short-Term Holders: Back in the Black

Recent Bitcoin buyers are arguably breathing the biggest sigh of relief this week. Short-term holders (STHs) are now back above their aggregate cost basis. STHs are entities that bought Bitcoin within the last six months. Their aggregate cost basis sits near $113,000. Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms this positive shift. The Short-Term Holder Profit Ratio (SOPR) is back above 1. This marks its highest levels since October 8. SOPR is an on-chain metric. It indicates whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss. A value above 1 means the average coin spent is sold for a profit. This signals overall market profitability for recent buyers.

[CHART: Bitcoin STH-SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant]

CryptoQuant research indicates a pattern. Overall supply in profit often reaches 95% before a local correction. These corrections typically find a bottom around the 75% threshold. For instance, it was 73% in September 2024, 76% in April 2024, and recently 81%. “Now, the percentage of supply in profit is slowly rising again, currently around 83.6%,” contributor Darkfost wrote. “This level can be interpreted as encouraging. It suggests investors are again willing to hold their BTC. They expect further upside.”

[CHART: Bitcoin % supply in profit. Source: CryptoQuant]

This metric reinforces the growing confidence among newer investors. Their return to profitability could fuel further upward price momentum. It signals a healthier market structure. This positive development supports the broader narrative of a strengthening Bitcoin market. Ultimately, a record monthly close combined with these on-chain metrics paints a cautiously optimistic picture for Bitcoin’s immediate future. Investors will continue to monitor these indicators closely. They will seek confirmation of a sustained bullish trend.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.