Bitcoin Price Surge: Q4 Rally to $185K Looms Despite Dire US Jobs Data

The cryptocurrency market recently experienced a notable dip. This movement followed the release of concerning US jobs data. However, many analysts believe this short-term setback could pave the way for a significant Bitcoin price surge. The fourth quarter might bring an impressive rally to $185,000. This potential surge hinges on anticipated actions from the Federal Reserve.

Dismal US Jobs Data Sets the Stage for Change

Recent economic reports from the United States have painted a concerning picture. The US Labor Department announced a record-breaking revision to payroll numbers. Specifically, they cut 911,000 jobs from previously reported data. This adjustment covers the 12 months ending March 2025. It marks the largest such cut in history. This revision signals profound weakness within the labor market.

The average overstatement amounted to 76,000 jobs per month. This figure surpasses the 2009 revision. That earlier revision occurred during the peak of the global financial crisis. Therefore, the current data highlights an even more significant economic challenge. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provided these figures. Source: Kobeissi /X.

Losses were concentrated in consumer-driven sectors. These included a reduction of 176,000 jobs in Leisure and Hospitality. Another 226,000 jobs disappeared from Trade, Transportation, and Utilities. Total private hiring was overstated by 880,000 jobs. Such a scale of weakness has rarely been seen. It is comparable only to the Great Depression and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. This trend adds to existing concerns. Last month, the US also cut 258,000 jobs from the May and June reports. Yesterday’s revision added another 27,000. This marks the largest two-month net revision in modern history outside of 2020. Alongside August’s weak 22,000-job gain, this data strongly suggests a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting. The US revised jobs exceeding 2009 levels. Source: Kobeissi /X.

The Impending Fed Rate Cut and its Economic Implications

The dramatic revision in US jobs data significantly impacts Federal Reserve policy expectations. Despite inflation remaining elevated (core Consumer Price Index above 3%) and GDP growth near 3%, the Fed faces a dilemma. The substantial weakening of the labor market now takes center stage. This scenario strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut. Many anticipate a 25 basis point reduction in the coming days. This would mark a historic moment. It would be the first rate cut with inflation still hot, stocks at record highs, and GDP strong. This unique combination suggests the central bank is prioritizing labor market health over inflation control. It indicates a ‘dovish but cautious’ stance.

Historically, central bank rate cuts infuse more money into the economy. This process increases liquidity. Investors often seek out assets that perform well in such environments. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has already responded. It surged 40% this year. Gold miners have nearly doubled their returns. This outperforms the S&P 500 by almost tenfold. This movement demonstrates investor confidence in a weakening labor market forcing the Fed’s hand. Consequently, Bitcoin may soon follow gold’s lead.

Crypto Market Liquidity: A Catalyst for Bitcoin’s Ascent

Bitcoin thrives on expanding macro liquidity. This is a crucial factor for its future performance. As the Federal Reserve signals a potential Fed rate cut, the flow of money into the financial system could increase. Bitwise Strategist André Dragosch highlighted this. He stated, “The Fed hasn’t even cut rates yet—and people are still fading the #bitcoin vs. money supply chart. Major USD stablecoins are already flashing the same signal: macro liquidity is expanding. Bullish for #Bitcoin.” This observation underscores the growing sentiment. Furthermore, it points to the potential for increased capital flowing into digital assets. This expansion in crypto market liquidity directly benefits Bitcoin.

When central banks loosen monetary policy, investors often rotate into riskier, high-growth assets. Bitcoin, often dubbed ‘digital gold,’ fits this description. Its limited supply and decentralized nature make it an attractive hedge against inflation. Moreover, it serves as a store of value during periods of economic uncertainty. The correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and broader money supply indicators is well-documented. A surge in stablecoin issuance, for instance, often precedes significant upward movements in the Bitcoin price. This pattern suggests that market participants are preparing for increased buying activity. They position themselves for a potential rally.

Unlocking the Q4 Bitcoin Rally: Forecasts and Correlations

The stage is set for a remarkable Q4 Bitcoin rally. Analysts are closely watching historical correlations. These relationships often predict future movements. Tephra Digital, an analytics platform, has made a compelling forecast. They stated, “If Bitcoin’s lagged M2 and gold correlations hold, the rest of the year could be very interesting. Charts below point to $167k–185k.” This projection suggests a substantial upside. It indicates Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs.

The M2 money supply measures the total amount of money in circulation. A growing M2 often correlates with asset price inflation. When more money enters the system, its value decreases. This encourages investment in assets like gold and Bitcoin. These assets historically retain value or appreciate. Bitcoin’s lean positioning in the market also plays a role. Its historical sensitivity to liquidity cycles is well-established. This unique policy mix, combining a dovish Fed with robust economic indicators, creates a powerful upside catalyst. Bitcoin gold M2 performance data. Source: X.

The expected rate cut could reignite investor confidence. It might also attract new capital into the crypto space. This influx of funds would further boost crypto market liquidity. Consequently, it could propel the Bitcoin price towards the ambitious targets of $167,000 to $185,000. Such a rally would represent a significant return on investment for those who held through recent volatility. It would also solidify Bitcoin’s position as a premier global asset.

Market Considerations and Future Outlook

While the outlook for a Q4 Bitcoin rally appears promising, investors should remain aware of potential market dynamics. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile. Various factors can influence price movements. These include regulatory developments, technological advancements, and broader geopolitical events. For example, unexpected shifts in inflation trends could alter the Federal Reserve’s stance. This might delay or even reverse anticipated rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions could also introduce uncertainty. Such events might prompt a flight to traditional safe havens. They could temporarily dampen enthusiasm for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Despite these considerations, the fundamental drivers for Bitcoin remain strong. The increasing institutional adoption, ongoing technological innovation, and growing global recognition continue to bolster its long-term prospects. Furthermore, the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional financial instability gains traction during periods of economic uncertainty. Investors should conduct thorough research. They must also consider their own risk tolerance. This is crucial before making any investment decisions. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.