Bitcoin Price: Urgent AI Forecast Predicts Low October Breakout Odds

The crypto world is buzzing. Bitcoin (BTC) recently achieved a new all-time high, creating significant excitement. Yet, a crucial **AI Bitcoin prediction** offers a cautious **BTC October forecast**, suggesting that a major breakout might be less likely this month. This analysis delves into the current **Bitcoin price** action, expert opinions, macroeconomic influences, and prevailing **crypto market sentiment** to provide a comprehensive outlook.

Bitcoin Price Consolidates After New All-Time High

Bitcoin kicked off “Uptober” with a bang. It secured a new all-time high over the weekend. However, traders now anticipate a period of consolidation. The price is currently hovering around $124,000. Data from Crypto News Insights Markets Pro and TradingView confirms this range. This recent surge produced a small “gap” in futures trading. Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades described this as a “classic weekend squeeze and retrace.”

Daan Crypto Trades noted, “Bitcoin did end up making a relatively small gap on the CME futures chart but nothing noteworthy.” He also highlighted a larger gap at $110K from the previous weekend. However, he stressed its relevance only if the price approaches it. For continued bullishness, trader Crypto Tony emphasizes holding the $123,000 level. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows also observed that the recent push above this level was largely “perps driven.” He suggests institutions must bid again for a sustained reclaim.

Higher targets remain a strong focus. Many analysts eye $150,000 or even more. Trader Jelle confidently stated, “#Bitcoin’s new leg higher is underway, starting with a new ATH, and a new highest weekly close. Next target: $150,000.” However, Michaël van de Poppe argues that this mark will likely follow a consolidation phase. He advises patience, suggesting that a correction beneath $121.5K could be a good entry point before moving towards $150K. This aligns with the overall cautious **BTC October forecast**.

Potential Dips and Support Levels for Bitcoin Price

Market participants expect some form of retracement from these record levels. No bull run moves in a straight line. Key targets for a support retest are now emerging. The 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on four-hour time frames sits around $119,250 and is rising. Trader CrypNuevo anticipates a “4h50EMA retest” for the week ahead. He views this as a healthy correction before a new move higher, favoring long positions from that EMA.

Rekt Capital, another popular analyst, suggests that rejecting from ~$124k is not surprising. The last rejection from this level led to a -13% pullback. He stated, “Bitcoin needs to prove this $124k resistance is a weakening point of rejection.” A shallower dip would indicate strength. Rekt Capital highlighted that a 4% dip to meet a rising trend line at approximately $118,000 would still position Bitcoin for further upside. Daan Crypto Trades echoed this, emphasizing the importance of maintaining higher highs and higher lows. He cautioned against ranging between $112K-$124K, which could hinder the larger bullish view. These levels are critical for the **Bitcoin price** trajectory.

AI Bitcoin Prediction Signals Range-Bound October

Despite the recent all-time high, a new prediction tool suggests caution. On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant released a “Quicktake” blog post. It raised questions about “Uptober” expectations. Contributor CryptoOnchain summarized, “After a significant uptrend, the price has entered a consolidation phase between the key support at 108,000 and the resistance at 123,000.” This price action suggests a “re-accumulation” period. Large market players may be building positions for the next major move.

CryptoQuant’s proprietary NBeats Ensemble forecasting tool supports this view. This AI model gathers data from nearly 400 “onchain features.” It now indicates that the odds of an October BTC price breakout are “low.” The model predicts continued fluctuations within the current range. However, it expects these fluctuations to occur primarily in the upper half of the range. Bitcoin should spend multiple weeks preparing for a resistance breakout. This would flip $123,000 from resistance to support. Hodlers, therefore, need patience. This **AI Bitcoin prediction** emphasizes a neutral, range-bound movement for the month. Traders should monitor $108,000 support and $123,000 resistance. A decisive break of either level will define the next mid-term move. This forms the core of the **BTC October forecast**.

Federal Reserve News and Macroeconomic Cues

Macroeconomic factors also play a significant role. The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed economic data. This adds an interesting layer to appearances by senior Federal Reserve officials this week. Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks at the Community Bank Conference. Vice Chair Michelle Bowman will also make two appearances. Powell faces pressure from President Donald Trump to accelerate interest-rate cuts. The Fed only began these last month after a year of steady rates.

The absence of data, especially concerning the weakening labor market, creates friction. The Fed’s next rate decision is only about three weeks away. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted, “The markets are looking ahead to the October and December Fed meetings amid the shutdown.” For crypto and risk-asset bulls, tailwinds persist. The shutdown is largely expected to be a “non-event” for markets. US stocks have seen six months of straight gains, bolstering confidence. Mosaic Asset Company highlighted, “The stock market continues climbing the ‘wall of worry,'” despite labor market and shutdown concerns. The S&P 500 is near record highs. It has traded above its 50-day moving average for 108 consecutive days. However, a potential rebound in US dollar strength (DXY) remains a risk to the risk-on rally. This is crucial **Federal Reserve news** for investors.

Crypto Market Sentiment Avoids Extreme Greed

Despite the recent all-time high, **crypto market sentiment** has remained relatively balanced. In just ten days, sentiment has shifted dramatically. Yet, traders have maintained a cool head at these new highs. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows “greed” now dominates. However, it has not entered the “extreme greed” zone. On Sunday, the Index hit a local high of 74/100. It then dropped back to 71/100 at the start of the week. These levels still represent a threefold increase from lows of 26/100 on September 26. Bitcoin’s previous all-time high in mid-August recorded peak Fear & Greed Index readings of 75/100. The trip to $125,700 thus formed a narrow divergence with price.

Another sentiment measure, from crypto analytics platform Alphractal, closely tracked late September lows and the subsequent rebound. Joao Wedson, an analyst, praised this metric: “This is the most accurate sentiment analysis metric in the crypto market that I know.” He noted that while the Fear and Greed Index generates some noise, Alphractal’s tool offers “pure alpha of the sentiment from analysts.” This suggests a more refined understanding of market psychology. The current **crypto market sentiment** indicates caution. This aligns with the **AI Bitcoin prediction** for October.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.