Bitcoin Price: Crucial Volatility as BTC Market Eyes $108K ‘Ping Pong’

The cryptocurrency world closely watches the recent rebound in Bitcoin price. After a challenging period, Bitcoin (BTC) pushed above $112,000 as the weekly close approached. However, this upward movement sparked immediate positioning by traders. Many now anticipate a potential correction. They foresee a ‘ping pong’ scenario, where BTC could retest the lower end of its local trading range, possibly around $108,000. This article explores five crucial factors influencing the BTC market this week.

Navigating Bitcoin’s Volatile Price Action

Bitcoin surprised many by closing its weekly candle above a significant price level. Initially, BTC/USD threatened new September lows, dipping under $109,000. Yet, a last-minute rebound occurred. This push successfully reclaimed $112,000 as a support level. Data from Crypto News Insights Markets Pro and TradingView confirms this price point held into Asia’s first trading session. The resilience shown by Bitcoin captivated market observers.

Despite the rebound, market participants remained cautious. They argued that more evidence is necessary before declaring a full-fledged bull market return. Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows shared his perspective on X. He noted, “$BTC also had a pump just like $ETH, mostly due to short positions getting closed.” Pillows further emphasized the need for sustained strength. He stated, “For a strong Bitcoin rally, a daily close above $113,500 is needed. Otherwise, BTC will most likely revisit its lows again.” This highlights the tentative nature of the current rally. Traders actively monitor key resistance levels.

Popular trader Roman echoed this sentiment. He expects the price to oscillate within its narrow trading range. “Currently just retesting and resistance,” Roman summarized. He added, “Unless we blow through on high volume, I expect some ping pong between here and 108k.” Roman also stressed the importance of bulls retaking $118,000 for a more definitive upward trend. The approaching monthly and quarterly close, less than 48 hours away, naturally amplified expectations for increased volatility. This period often sees significant price movements as positions are adjusted.

CoinGlass data provided context for these movements. At $112,000, BTC/USD would secure a 3% gain for September. The third quarter (Q3) would show an approximate 4.4% upside. These figures represent average performance for Bitcoin. Historically, both September and Q3 returns exhibit high variability. Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on this data on X. He observed, “$BTC Has seen very little volatility and is closing the quarter relatively flat. This is not out of the ordinary for Q3 as you can see.” He further explained, “It’s the worst quarter on average with ‘only’ a ~6% increase on average throughout its history. So we’re pretty much in line just like Q2.”

Daan Crypto Trades, conversely, anticipated a “very exciting” Q4. This expectation stems from past performance trends. He concluded, “BTC has been pretty reliable though so it makes more sense to watch in my opinion. Especially with it lagging behind the likes of $GOLD & Stocks the past few weeks.” This outlook suggests a potential catch-up for Bitcoin. Many observers believe it might mirror other asset classes soon.

Understanding Liquidity Shifts and BTC Market Dynamics

Bitcoin’s return above $112,000 significantly reshuffled liquidity across exchange order books. CoinGlass data clearly illustrates this phenomenon. Price action effectively sliced through numerous late short positions. Consequently, large players swiftly added more ask liquidity around the $113,000 level. This movement indicates a dynamic battle between buying and selling pressure. Traders continuously adjust their strategies based on immediate price changes.

In the 24 hours leading up to the time of writing, total crypto liquidations reached $350 million. A substantial $260 million of this total comprised short positions. This indicates that many bearish bets were closed out as the price moved higher. Market commentators now actively scrutinize the order-book setup. They aim to determine Bitcoin’s next potential price direction. Liquidity often acts as a “magnet,” drawing price both upward and downward. Understanding these dynamics is key to anticipating future movements within the BTC market.

Popular trader CrypNuevo shared his perspective on X. He stated, “I like when the market sentiment is bearish after a correction during a HTF uptrend.” He further noted, “I think it’s the case – a drop below $100k seems to be the market consensus right now. So instead, I’m inclining more towards a recovery from here or the liquidity grab at $106.9k and then up.” This suggests a contrarian view, anticipating an upward move despite prevailing bearish sentiment. The potential for a $5 billion liquidation of long positions below $107,000 adds to market caution. This substantial amount of capital at risk keeps many participants on edge. The impending monthly close further contributes to this careful stance.

Trader Killa highlighted another important factor: the new weekend “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures. These gaps often act as price magnets. Killa observed, “If we re-evaluate price action, we pumped on CME open. Usually, when we do that, these particular gaps can take a few days or a week to fill.” He further suggested, “Since we have both monthly and quarterly closes, I believe they’re building long liquidity before taking out the weekend lows.” This implies a strategic move by larger players to accumulate positions before a potential downward sweep. These technical indicators provide valuable context for a thorough Bitcoin analysis.

Macroeconomic Pressures and Fed Policy’s Influence

This week brings a familiar focus for crypto and risk-asset traders. US employment data and statements from Federal Reserve officials take center stage. Several high-ranking figures will offer insights into the US economic outlook. This comes amid an emerging divergence in views regarding interest-rate cuts. Traders eagerly anticipate these cuts. They represent an easing of monetary policy, implying more liquidity could flow into risk assets like Bitcoin. The direction of Fed policy remains a critical determinant for market sentiment.

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are far from unanimous. They hold differing opinions on the timing and pace of rate cuts. This internal debate adds complexity to the economic landscape. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech last week. He sought to balance hawkish and dovish language. Powell faces intense pressure from US President Donald Trump to accelerate policy easing. This political influence further complicates the Fed’s decisions.

Powell stated, “In recent months, it has become clear that the balance of risks has shifted, prompting us to move our policy stance closer to neutral at our meeting last week.” This statement followed the FOMC’s decision to implement a 0.25% rate cut at its September meeting. While a step towards easing, many, including Trump, demand more drastic action. Trump, in a now-deleted post on Truth Social, even depicted firing Powell. He has consistently called for Powell’s resignation throughout 2025.

Trump’s criticism continued in a further post. He stated, “If it weren’t for Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, we would be at 2% right now, and in the process of balancing our budget.” He added, “The good news is that we’re powering through his Incompetence, and we’ll soon be doing, as a Country, better than we have ever done before!” These strong opinions underscore the political dimension of monetary policy. Private and public sector employment data, alongside initial jobless claims, are scheduled for release throughout the week. These figures will likely serve as primary catalysts for market volatility. The impact of these economic releases on Fed policy expectations will be closely watched by all financial markets.

Gold’s Remarkable Surge and Crypto Market Insights

While Bitcoin bulls experienced some modest relief this week, gold once again captured significant attention. XAU/USD achieved a fresh all-time high on Monday, surpassing $3,800 per ounce for the first time in history. This surge occurred amid a notable weakening of the US dollar. Gold’s performance repeats a pattern that has preoccupied Bitcoin traders this quarter: gold consistently outperforming Bitcoin. This trend prompts crucial questions about asset allocation and market drivers.

Reflexivity Research, a market insights resource, highlighted this divergence in its latest regular “Macro Monday.” They specifically drew attention to the weakening Bitcoin/Gold Ratio. This ratio, they noted, is “signaling a preference for gold over Bitcoin as a hedge.” The observation suggests investors are currently favoring traditional safe-haven assets. This offers valuable crypto market insights for understanding current investment flows.

Despite gold’s current dominance, Bitcoin proponents maintain optimism. They believe BTC price strength can eventually mirror gold’s performance, albeit with a statutory delay. This would preserve historical trends where Bitcoin eventually catches up. Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, offered a macroeconomic explanation on X. He asked, “Why has bitcoin been lagging behind gold in 2025?” He then answered, “Because gold has been more sensitive to monetary policy & US Dollar while bitcoin has been more sensitive to global growth expectations.”

Dragosch further elaborated, “So, gold’s price action reflects strong monetary easing already while bitcoin’s price action still reflects weak growth expectations.” He concluded that growth expectations typically follow monetary policy changes with a lag. Consequently, Bitcoin is expected to follow gold’s trajectory, leading to a “significant rally.” These insights offer a nuanced perspective on the interplay between macroeconomics and crypto asset performance, providing crucial crypto market insights.

On-Chain Bitcoin Analysis: Speculators vs. Long-Term Holders

New analysis reveals classic market behavior among Bitcoiners reacting to the recent BTC price dip. A clear distinction emerges between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH). Short-term holders were observed selling their coins at a loss. Meanwhile, “old hands” or long-term holders steadfastly rode out the market storm. This divergence in behavior is a critical indicator for any robust Bitcoin analysis.

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, in a “Quicktake” blog post, utilized a classic on-chain metric. This metric demonstrated that for experienced investors, the recent dip resembled previous market corrections. Contributor Woo Min-Kyu summarized, “We saw the same setup in late 2024—short-term capitulation while LTH conviction stayed strong—right before a major rebound.” He further explained, “Historically, these low-ratio zones often align with price bottoms, marking the late stage of corrections.” This historical context offers valuable predictive power.

The post specifically used a derivative of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). SOPR measures the extent to which coins moving on-chain are doing so in profit or at a loss. The ratio between LTH and STH SOPR clearly confirmed a trend. Newer investors responded to the dip by selling at a loss. CryptoQuant aptly concluded, “Short-term pain, long-term gain.” This highlights the differing investment horizons and risk tolerances. Short-term holders, defined as those holding for up to six months, consistently show sensitivity to sudden BTC price volatility. This sensitivity becomes particularly pronounced when the market crosses their aggregate cost basis. According to CryptoQuant data, the average STH cost basis currently sits around $109,800.

Conclusion: Navigating the Week’s Bitcoin Outlook

This week presents a complex and dynamic landscape for Bitcoin price. The recent rebound to $112,000 ignited hopes but also reinforced caution. Traders anticipate a potential ‘ping pong’ within the local range, possibly revisiting $108,000. Key factors continue to influence the BTC market, from on-chain liquidity shifts and CME gaps to broader macroeconomic signals. The Federal Reserve’s evolving Fed policy, particularly concerning interest rates, remains a pivotal driver. Its impact on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, cannot be overstated.

Furthermore, gold’s impressive surge to new all-time highs offers valuable crypto market insights. It suggests a current preference for traditional hedges. However, many analysts predict Bitcoin will eventually follow suit, albeit with a delay. On-chain Bitcoin analysis reveals a clear distinction between long-term conviction and short-term capitulation. This historical pattern often precedes significant rebounds. Investors should therefore conduct thorough research. They must remain informed about both technical indicators and macro trends. This approach is essential for navigating the current market volatility effectively.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.