Bitcoin Price: Crucial Warning Signs Emerge for the Bull Market

Is the current Bitcoin price surge approaching its peak? Many investors wonder if the extended bull market is nearing its conclusion. Recent on-chain data and historical comparisons suggest a significant shift. This analysis dives into key metrics signaling a potential late maturity phase for Bitcoin.

Unpacking Bitcoin’s On-Chain Data Signals

Bitcoin price has demonstrated remarkable growth. Over the last three years, it surged over 700%. This rise took BTC from a cycle low of $15,500 in November 2022 to a recent all-time high of $124,500. Comparing this performance to past cycles reveals intriguing patterns.

Market intelligence firm Glassnode provides valuable insights. According to their latest Week On-chain report, the current cycle appears to be in its advanced stages. Historically, previous bull market peaks occurred roughly two to three months beyond our current position in the cycle. This applies to both the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles. Consequently, the present trajectory mirrors past cycle tops.

The amount of Bitcoin supply in profit also offers a compelling indicator. As of August 21, approximately 91% of all Bitcoin holdings were profitable. This metric has remained elevated for over 273 days in the current cycle. Furthermore, this period above the +1 standard deviation band is the second-longest on record. Only the 2015–2018 cycle surpassed it, lasting 335 days. Therefore, the duration of widespread profitability aligns with conditions seen before previous cycle peaks.

Bitcoin price performance from cycle lows. Source: Glassnode

Historical Market Cycle Analysis Points to Maturity

Further analysis of on-chain data reveals consistent patterns. Long-Term Holders (LTHs), defined as investors holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, have realized substantial profits. The cumulative profit realized by LTHs since reaching new cycle all-time highs has been higher than in prior cycles. This heightened level of profit-taking by LTHs is comparable to past euphoric market phases. It adds a crucial dimension to understanding potential sell-side pressure.

Glassnode emphasizes that these combined signals reinforce a clear view. The current market cycle is firmly entrenched in its historically late phase. This suggests the market is maturing, and the peak may be closer than some anticipate. In addition, popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital shares a similar perspective. He notes that if Bitcoin’s bull market peaks align with historical halving cycles, this could occur in mid-September or mid-October 2025. This timeframe, he points out, is only one to two months away.

BTC: Supply in profit oscillator (days above +1SD). Source: Glassnode

These historical comparisons provide a robust framework. They help us understand the potential trajectory of the current bull market. Consequently, investors are closely watching these indicators for signs of a turning point. The confluence of these on-chain metrics and historical patterns suggests a cautious approach may be warranted.

BTC: Cumulative LTH realized profit. Source: Glassnode

Navigating Current Bitcoin Price Action and Support Levels

Recent Bitcoin price action also reflects this maturing market sentiment. On Wednesday, Bitcoin saw a strong bounce from the $112,000 support level. However, the price was subsequently rejected at $114,000. This rejection strengthens the case for further downside movement. Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the importance of this level. He stated that $114,000 needs to be convincingly lost for BTC to decline further. A weekly close relative to $114,000 will also be key for short-term direction.

Below this point, the $112,000–$110,000 region remains untested in the latest drawdown. This zone also aligns with the 100-day simple moving average. If Bitcoin experiences deeper pullbacks, this specific zone could present a significant buying opportunity. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, echoed this sentiment. He stated that a drop south of the previous low would create a “great buy opportunity.”

However, bulls must aggressively defend the $110,000 to $112,000 zone. Failure to do so could result in a return to the $100,000 to $90,000 range. According to Daan Crypto Trades, anything lower than this crucial support would make the market structure appear weak. Therefore, vigilance around these key support and resistance levels is paramount for traders and investors.

Expert Crypto Analysis and Future Outlook

The collective insights from crypto analysis firms and individual experts paint a consistent picture. Bitcoin’s current phase aligns with historical patterns seen before previous cycle tops. The elevated duration of supply in profit and increased long-term holder profit-taking are significant indicators. These factors, when combined, strongly suggest the current bull market is in its later stages.

Investors should monitor these on-chain metrics closely. The possibility of a market top within the next few months remains high, according to these analyses. While the $110,000-$112,000 range offers potential support, a breach could lead to further declines. Consequently, careful risk management and ongoing market observation are crucial during this period of potential transition.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.