Bitcoin Bull Market Accelerates? Spot ETF Inflows Dip, But Whale Activity Surges

The cryptocurrency market is always full of interesting signals, and recently, the focus has been on the performance of Spot Bitcoin ETF products. While inflows into these ETFs have seen a notable decrease, other indicators, particularly from large holders known as whales, suggest the underlying strength of the Bitcoin bull market may be accelerating.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slow Down: What Does it Mean for Bitcoin Price?

Recent data shows a sharp decline in Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. Over the last four weeks, net inflows plummeted by over 90%, falling from a peak of $3 billion to just $228 million. Historically, significant ETF inflows have often coincided with strong upward movements in Bitcoin price. However, the relationship isn’t always straightforward.

Let’s look at a few periods:

• Q1 2024 (Feb-March): $11.39 billion in inflows over seven weeks fueled a 57% rally. Yet, the final weeks of high inflows didn’t push prices higher, suggesting other factors were at play.
• Q3 2024 (Oct-Dec): $16.8 billion over nine weeks led to a 66% rally. A slowdown in the tenth week coincided with a 9% price drop.
• Q1 2025 (Jan): $3.8 billion in two weeks saw a new all-time high reached briefly, but overall prices fell 4.8%.
• Q2 2025 (April-May): $5.8 billion in inflows correlated with a 22% rally, but Bitcoin had already gained 8% in the prior two weeks despite negative flows.

This historical data shows that while strong ETF inflows can certainly support a rally, they are not the only driver of Bitcoin price movements. Price increases can happen independently, and sometimes high inflows don’t result in further gains.

Is Short-Term Selling Pressure Masking Long-Term Strength?

Despite the slowdown in Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, there’s another critical area to examine: BTC whale activity. Data indicates some short-term selling pressure as larger holders take profits, particularly as Bitcoin approached levels around $100,000-$105,000. This is reflected in a negative Buy/Sell Pressure Delta.

However, a deeper look at BTC whale activity suggests a different long-term trend. Compared to previous market peaks, whales are taking significantly less profit during this current rally. This reserved profit-taking behavior is often interpreted as a bullish sign, indicating that these large players anticipate further upward movement in the Bitcoin bull market.

Beyond ETF Inflows: What Else is Driving the Bitcoin Bull Market?

The fact that Bitcoin price can rally even when ETF inflows are modest suggests other factors are contributing to the Bitcoin bull market. These could include increasing retail investor interest, macroeconomic developments like easing tariffs, or continued accumulation by large, non-ETF holders.

While the drop in Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows might historically suggest a potential correction, the ongoing bullish signals from BTC whale activity present a compelling counterargument. Monitoring the actions of these large holders, alongside ETF data and broader market sentiment, remains crucial for understanding the potential direction of the Bitcoin price.

Actionable Insight: Keep a close eye on whale wallets and on-chain metrics that track large holder movements. Their behavior can provide early signals about long-term market conviction, potentially outweighing short-term fluctuations in ETF flows.

Summary: Navigating Mixed Signals in the Bitcoin Bull Market

The current landscape presents mixed signals: falling Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which have historically correlated with price slowdowns, contrasted with strong long-term buying conviction shown by BTC whale activity. This suggests the Bitcoin bull market might be finding support from sources beyond just ETF flows. While short-term volatility is possible due to profit-taking, the underlying data from large holders points towards potential continued upward momentum for the Bitcoin price.