Bitcoin Price Alert: $3B Spot ETF Surge Fuels ‘40% Discount’ Narrative
Is the market missing something? Recent data suggests that the current Bitcoin price could be trading at a significant discount, especially as institutional interest, highlighted by surging Spot BTC ETF inflows, reaches new highs. Could this combination signal a major move for the world’s leading cryptocurrency?
Bitcoin Undervalued? Exploring the ‘40% Discount’ Claim
According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, Bitcoin might be substantially undervalued. Edwards suggests that since the April 2024 halving event, which reduced the block reward, Bitcoin’s ‘energy value’ sits around $130,000. This energy value is an estimate based on the cost and energy consumption required for mining. Compared to the current market price, this implies Bitcoin is trading at roughly a 40% discount to this intrinsic value metric.
Spot BTC ETF Inflows Reach Billions
Adding fuel to the bullish narrative are the massive inflows into US-based Spot BTC ETFs. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reported that institutions have been on a ‘$3 billion Bitcoin bender’ over the past week. This sharp uptick in buying activity indicates strong institutional demand and provides significant buying pressure on the underlying asset.
Key ETF Inflow Data Points:
- Total Inflows (Recent Week): Approximately $3 billion
- Suggests: Robust institutional and potentially retail demand via regulated products
- Context: Marks a notable increase in buying momentum
Whale Movements: Analyzing Bitcoin Exchange Outflows
Complementing the positive ETF data, significant amounts of Bitcoin have been withdrawn from major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. CryptoQuant data showed over 8,756 BTC ($830 million) leaving Coinbase on April 24, often interpreted as a sign of institutional accumulation or ETF-related purchases moving Bitcoin into cold storage.
Similarly, Binance saw outflows of 27,750 BTC on April 25, marked as the third-largest outflow in the exchange’s history by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson. While large outflows can signal bullish sentiment by reducing sell pressure, Wedson cautions that they don’t guarantee a continued rally, citing historical examples like the 2021 China ban dump despite outflows. However, sustained outflows over several days, like during the FTX collapse, have historically signaled bottoms and recovery phases.
Could This Bitcoin Price Fractal Predict $100K?
Market analysts are also looking at historical price patterns for clues about the future Bitcoin price trajectory. Bitcoin’s recent weekly performance has been its strongest of 2025 so far, mirroring price action seen in Q4 2024. During that period, Bitcoin consolidated at a higher range after a breakout before posting significant gains (13% followed by 15%).
Current Price Action Comparison (Approximate):
| Period | Initial Breakout/Rise | Subsequent Move |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 (Nov 5-11) | ~13% rise (Nov 5-9) | ~15% rise (Nov 10-11) |
| Recent (April 21-25) | ~11% rise | Potential for further move? |
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also shows similar buying pressure to the Q4 2024 period. If this fractal pattern holds, a further 7-10% jump in the coming days could potentially push BTC above the $100,000 mark. However, it’s crucial to note that fractals are not perfectly reliable predictors. Unlike Q4 2024, when Bitcoin entered price discovery, the current market faces significant overhead resistance, notably around the $96,100 level, which could impede a rapid breakout.
Conclusion: A Mix of Bullish Signals and Resistance
The confluence of data points—a potential ‘40% discount’ based on energy value, surging Spot BTC ETF inflows signaling strong institutional demand, and large exchange outflows—paints a largely bullish picture for Bitcoin. While historical fractal patterns hint at the possibility of reaching $100,000, the presence of overhead resistance levels means the path forward may not be without challenges. Investors should consider these multiple factors and conduct their own thorough research before making any decisions in the volatile crypto market.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
