Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Soars: Bullish Signs Point to $118K BTC Price Target
What’s driving Bitcoin’s recent resilience, even as sellers try to push the BTC price lower? A key indicator, the Coinbase Premium Index, has hit a remarkable 20-day positive streak, signaling robust demand from US-based investors and potentially setting the stage for significant upward movement.
Why the Coinbase Premium Streak Matters for Bitcoin
The Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on the US-centric exchange Coinbase and global platforms like Binance. A sustained positive premium indicates that buyers on Coinbase are willing to pay slightly more for Bitcoin, suggesting stronger demand originating from the United States. This current 20-day streak is notable, being the longest seen in 2025, highlighting consistent buying pressure from both institutional and retail investors in the US market.
Data from analysts supports this view:
- Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci noted a significant outflow of 8,742 BTC from Coinbase on May 26, one of the largest recent outflows. Such large movements from Coinbase often precede increased ETF inflows or corporate purchases, implying institutional demand.
- Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. suggests that current demand is sufficient to sustain the bull run without major disruptions.
Understanding Selling Pressure and Market Analysis
Beyond demand, the selling behavior of existing holders is crucial for market analysis. Reduced selling pressure removes a significant hurdle for price appreciation. Metrics tracking short-term holders (STHs, holding less than 155 days) and long-term holders (LTHs) provide insight into this.
Recent data shows a decrease in BTC inflows to exchanges from both STHs and LTHs. Compared to previous downturns (like August 2024 or April’s tariff-related panic) which saw inflows exceeding 12,000-14,000 BTC to Binance, current inflows are limited to around 8,000 BTC. This lower level of inflow suggests a lack of intense selling pressure, mirroring patterns seen during milder market corrections rather than significant capitulation events.
Can Technicals Confirm the Bullish BTC Price Outlook?
Technical analysis on the charts also provides compelling signals for the future BTC price trajectory. Bitcoin appears to be trading within a descending triangle pattern on lower timeframes. This pattern typically features a declining resistance trendline and a strong horizontal support level.
Key technical observations include:
- **Support Zone:** A significant daily order block exists between $104,000 and $106,000, acting as a high-interest area for potential buyers.
- **Bullish Divergence:** A visible bullish divergence is forming between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). While price has made lower lows, the RSI has trended higher, indicating weakening bearish momentum and potential for a reversal.
- **Liquidity Sweep Potential:** A short-term dip below the pattern trendline around $107,000 could occur, potentially sweeping liquidity before a strong rebound.
If price successfully tests the $104,000-$106,000 support and rebounds sharply, it could validate the bullish divergence and trigger a breakout from the descending triangle. The measured move target for such a breakout from this pattern points towards $118,000.
Conclusion: A confluence of Factors Supporting Bitcoin
The sustained Coinbase Premium streak underscores strong US investor demand. This combines with reduced selling pressure from both short- and long-term holders. On the technical front, a potential descending triangle breakout, supported by a bullish divergence, targets a significant price level around $118,000. While market analysis involves inherent risks, these combined factors present a compelling case for continued optimism regarding Bitcoin’s near-term price potential.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
