Analysts predict Bitcoin volatility spike as market aligns like a ‘coiled spring’
Bitcoin’s (BTC) spot volume hit $16 billion on Sept. 18 following the US Federal Reserve confirming a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
According to FalconX head of research David Lawant, the high volume paired with the liquidity setup shown in the past six months could be a sign of impending high volatility.
‘Coiled spring’
Lawant noted that the current spot volume is nearly 30% higher than the daily average during August, which indicates that liquidity is significantly stronger during periods of recovery compared to sell-offs.
He echoed the sentiment recently shared by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, saying that liquidity dynamics in the crypto market look like a “coiled spring.”
Glassnode also compared BTC’s current price action to a coiling spring in a report published before the Fed’s decision.
According to the report, the coiled spring setup was formed because the price has been compressed within “a well-defined range” over the past six months. Historically, only August 2023 and May 2016 registered a 180-day price range tighter than the current one.
It added that macro events like the Fed’s interest rate cut release the “pressure” built up over the period, which often leads to high market volatility.
Additionally, CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju highlighted that institutions are not shorting Bitcoin aggressively, which is another improvement in market conditions. He added that CME futures net positions have fallen 75% since April, and are close to early October 2023 levels.
Potential for a burst
Glassnode also noted that both inflows and outflows from the market have become mute, which indicated that Bitcoin has entered a state of “equilibrium.”
Furthermore, net realized profit and loss are “largely equal,” and the absolute realized profit plus loss has declined significantly since Bitcoin’s all-time high in March. Both metrics suggest that buy-side pressure is low in the current price range, which translates to low demand for Bitcoin.
Glassnode also noted that the “Hot Supply” of Bitcoin, a metric used to define BTC holdings that are more likely to be transferred, is at a significantly low level. These wallets represent only 4.7% of the on-chain value, which suggests that the supply side is also constricted.
The report also highlighted that the rising stablecoin supply, currently at $160.4 billion, could break this predicament by adding purchasing power to the market, which would result in ultimate friction between inactivity and demand.
However, the report added that this supply must rotate in the market for this to happen, triggering the coiled spring mentioned by analysts.
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