Bitcoin Bull Cycle: Crucial Warning as Profit-Taking Metrics Spike

Is the current Bitcoin bull cycle nearing its peak? Fresh insights from analytics firm Glassnode suggest investors should pay close attention. The report indicates Bitcoin’s market cycle has entered a ‘historically late phase.’ This development sees Bitcoin profit-taking metrics mirroring patterns from previous bull market tops. Understanding these signals is crucial for every cryptocurrency investor. What do these trends mean for future all-time highs and your portfolio strategy?

Understanding the Bitcoin Bull Cycle’s Late Phase

Glassnode’s recent findings highlight a significant shift in the Bitcoin bull cycle. The analytics platform warns that current profit-taking behavior strongly resembles past market cycle peaks. This observation draws parallels with the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 runs. Historically, new all-time highs (ATHs) emerged approximately two to three months after Bitcoin reached this relative stage. This pattern offers a potential roadmap for the coming months.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s circulating supply has maintained a position above the +1 standard deviation profit band for 273 consecutive days. This streak is notably long, second only to the 335-day period observed during the 2015–2018 cycle. Long-term holders (LTHs) are realizing substantial profits, exceeding all but one past cycle’s figures. This trend suggests mounting sell-side pressure. “These signals reinforce the view that the current cycle is firmly in its historically late phase,” Glassnode stated in its weekly report. Yet, past cycles under similar conditions often preceded new ATHs within months. Therefore, while caution is advised, opportunity may still exist.

Analyzing Bitcoin Profit-Taking Trends

Recent market movements confirm intensified Bitcoin profit-taking. Bitcoin has slipped nearly 9% since hitting reported highs around $124,000. This decline occurred alongside weaker capital inflows. The growth of Bitcoin’s realized cap peaked at just 6% per month in recent weeks. This contrasts sharply with the 13% growth seen during the reported $100,000 breakout in late 2024. Profit-taking volumes have also softened after the most recent ATH attempt. However, they remained significant at earlier peaks, such as $70,000, $100,000, and $122,000. These fluctuations highlight dynamic market behavior. Nevertheless, realized losses remain moderate, approximately $112 million per day. This figure falls well within historical norms for local corrections, suggesting a healthy market adjustment rather than a capitulation event.

Navigating the Current Crypto Market Cycle

Despite increased profit-taking, the current crypto market cycle shows signs of robust demand. Data from CryptoQuant reveals renewed interest from newer investors. The youngest cohort of Bitcoin holders, those with wallets under one month old, has turned net positive. This group’s supply surged by 73,702 BTC in September. Similarly, short-term holders (STHs) are accumulating aggressively, adding 159,098 BTC. This influx of new capital effectively absorbs coins distributed by long-term holders. Such a dynamic is often a hallmark of sustained bull markets. It suggests underlying strength even during periods of price correction.

Moreover, on-chain analytics indicate significant accumulation by large investors. Whales, defined as wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, have added over 56,000 coins since late August. This whale activity often signals confidence in future price appreciation. Furthermore, exchange balances have seen a notable reduction. Over the past month, more than 31,000 BTC left exchanges. This reduction typically decreases near-term selling pressure. These combined factors paint a complex picture of the market. They suggest resilience amidst the late-cycle warnings.

Investor Sentiment and Bitcoin Price Action

Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin price action. On-chain insights from Santiment offer a cautious perspective. They warn against expecting an immediate rebound. Historically, retail traders’ eagerness to “buy the dip” has often preceded further downside. Furthermore, short positions currently remain insufficient to fuel a major short squeeze. This means a rapid upward movement driven by short covering is less likely in the immediate future. Market sentiment has turned more negative since Bitcoin fell below $114,000. However, analysts note that fear levels have not yet reached capitulation. This suggests that while there is apprehension, widespread panic selling has not occurred.

The latest Glassnode analysis provides a nuanced view of Bitcoin’s position. It highlights both late-cycle characteristics and resilient demand. The confluence of these factors demands careful consideration from investors. It is important to remember that every investment and trading move involves risk. Readers should always conduct their own thorough research when making financial decisions. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations.