Bitcoin News Today: Unlocking Further Gains as Active Supply Remains Remarkably Low

Are you tracking the pulse of the crypto market? If so, the latest insights into Bitcoin’s on-chain data are crucial. Despite recent consolidation, a fascinating metric is capturing attention: Bitcoin’s active supply remains exceptionally low. This seemingly minor detail could be a powerful indicator, suggesting that the current market phase is far from its peak and that significant upward movement for the Bitcoin price might still be on the horizon. For those deeply invested in Bitcoin news today, this data point offers a compelling narrative of holder conviction and potential future growth.

What is Bitcoin’s Active Supply Telling Us About the Current Bitcoin Price?

Bitcoin has been in a fascinating dance, consolidating between $117,000 and $120,000 after its impressive surge past a new all-time high of $123,000. While some might interpret this sideways movement as stagnation, underlying on-chain data paints a more nuanced and potentially bullish picture. A key metric, the percentage of supply active in the past 180 days (% Supply Active), offers deep insights into holder behavior and market cycles.

This metric measures the portion of Bitcoin supply that has moved or been involved in transactions within the last six months. It serves as a barometer for how many coins are being actively traded or potentially sold versus those being held for the long term. Here’s what the current readings suggest:

• Current Reading (June 2025): The % Supply Active stands at a modest +2.4%. While this is an improvement from negative territory, it’s notably low when compared to historical bull market peaks.
• Historical Context: During previous major bull cycles, this metric surged dramatically. For instance, it hit 20% in spring 2024 as Bitcoin approached $70,000, and 18% in December 2024 when Bitcoin broke through $100,000. These higher percentages typically indicate a period of increased distribution, where long-term holders begin to take profits.
• The Implication: The current low reading suggests that the market is still far from a widespread distribution phase. Most Bitcoin holders are not yet incentivized to sell their assets, even as prices approach record levels. This strong holding conviction provides a structural support for further price appreciation.

Why Are Bitcoin Holders Not Selling, and What Does This Mean for the Crypto Market Analysis?

The reluctance of long-term Bitcoin holders to sell, despite significant price gains, is a critical factor influencing the market’s trajectory. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. emphasizes that while the gradual rise in % Supply Active reflects a shift in holder behavior, its pace significantly lags behind historical trends. He notes, “The current trajectory suggests we are far from entering a heightened distribution phase.”

Adler’s analysis highlights key thresholds:

• He anticipates a potential climb to 8–10% active supply if Bitcoin sustains levels above $120,000. This would indicate a more active market but still far from peak distribution.
• The 18–20% threshold, seen in prior bull market tops, is expected to re-emerge only in a late-cycle context. This implies considerable room for growth before the market reaches a significant inflection point for widespread profit-taking.

This strong holder retention is a powerful signal in any crypto market analysis. It suggests that many investors believe Bitcoin has much higher to go, or they are simply not feeling enough pressure or incentive to offload their holdings. While some analysts, like Glassnode’s James Check, express skepticism about Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by 2025 due to weak buying volume, and others forecast targets as high as $250,000 or even $1 million, the consistent signal from active supply data points to sustained holder conviction.

Even recent movements, such as $150 million in dormant Bitcoin re-entering circulation via SpaceX, indicate shifting sentiment but fall short of the aggressive outflows seen in prior bull runs. Similarly, while the “Satoshi-Era” group shifted $9.5 billion earlier in the year, no significant profit-taking from these large holders has been observed recently, further underscoring the muted selling pressure.

Decoding On-Chain Data: A Key to Understanding Bitcoin News Today

For anyone following Bitcoin news today, understanding the power of on-chain data is paramount. Unlike traditional market indicators, on-chain metrics provide direct visibility into the behavior of network participants, offering an unfiltered view of supply and demand dynamics. The % Supply Active is a prime example of such a metric, offering predictive insights that complement price charts.

The contrast between current and historical active supply patterns is striking:

• In 2024, the % Supply Active spiked significantly ahead of major price peaks, signaling increased selling.
• Currently, the increase is minimal, suggesting that widespread selling pressure is still a distant prospect.

This lag in active supply indicates that Bitcoin may have considerable room to appreciate before reaching a critical point where mass profit-taking begins. Investors are wise to monitor the 8–10% active supply benchmark. If this level is reached, it could signal an evolving market dynamic where more holders consider selling, potentially leading to increased volatility or a slowdown in price growth.

Ultimately, if accumulation resumes and fresh capital flows into the market, the stage could be set for another substantial upward move. This scenario hinges on Bitcoin holders continuing to resist near-term profit-taking, a trend that the current on-chain data strongly supports.

In conclusion, while Bitcoin consolidates after its impressive surge to new highs, the underlying on-chain data, particularly the low active supply, paints a compelling picture. Long-term holders are demonstrating remarkable conviction, signaling that the market may still be in the earlier stages of its bull cycle. This continued holder retention provides a robust foundation for potential further gains, making the current market phase one to watch closely for any investor in the crypto space.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What does “active supply” mean in Bitcoin?

In Bitcoin, “active supply” refers to the percentage of the total Bitcoin supply that has been moved or involved in transactions within a specific timeframe, typically the last 180 days. It helps analysts understand how much Bitcoin is being actively traded versus held for the long term.

Why is Bitcoin’s current 2.4% active supply significant?

A 2.4% active supply is remarkably low compared to previous bull market peaks (which saw 18-20%). This low percentage suggests that a large majority of Bitcoin holders are not selling their assets, even at high prices, indicating strong conviction and potentially more room for price appreciation before widespread profit-taking begins.

What are the historical precedents for Bitcoin’s active supply?

Historically, significant increases in Bitcoin’s active supply (e.g., to 18-20%) have preceded major market tops or heightened distribution phases. This pattern suggests that when a large portion of the supply becomes active, it often indicates long-term holders are starting to sell, signaling a potential peak.

How do on-chain metrics like active supply help predict Bitcoin’s price?

On-chain metrics provide direct insights into the behavior of Bitcoin network participants. By tracking active supply, analysts can gauge the selling pressure from long-term holders. A low active supply indicates limited selling pressure, which can be a bullish signal, while a high active supply suggests increased distribution and potential price resistance.

What are the key levels of active supply investors should monitor?

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. suggests monitoring the 8-10% active supply benchmark as a potential indicator of evolving market dynamics. If this level is reached, it could signify a more active market, though still far from a late-cycle distribution phase where 18-20% active supply might be seen.

Are there any counter-arguments to this bullish active supply signal?

While the low active supply is a strong bullish signal, some analysts, like Glassnode’s James Check, express concerns about weak buying volume. This suggests that while holders aren’t selling, there might not be enough new capital entering the market to drive prices significantly higher in the short term, leading to continued consolidation.