Bitcoin Price: EXPLOSIVE $330K Target Predicted for This Bull Market Peak
Get ready, crypto enthusiasts! While the recent market has been a bit volatile, new analysis points to an incredible potential for the Bitcoin price in this cycle. Could we really see BTC soar another 300%? Let’s dive into the historical trends and metrics suggesting a target as high as $330,000 before this Bitcoin bull market reaches its peak.
What Does the AVIV Ratio Tell Us About the BTC Price Peak?
Technical analyst Gert van Lagen highlights the AVIV Ratio, a fascinating metric comparing Bitcoin’s active capitalization (money moving) to its total invested capitalization (realized value, excluding miner rewards). Historically, when this ratio crosses a specific threshold (+3σ mean deviation), it has marked the top of a cycle. Consider these past peaks:
- 2013: BTC near $1,200
- 2017: BTC near $20,000
- 2021: BTC near $69,000
Crucially, the current AVIV Ratio level remains below these historical peaks. This suggests that the BTC price has room to climb significantly before this cycle’s top condition is met. The analysis indicates Bitcoin could reach at least $330,000 based on this historical pattern.
The AVIV Ratio offers a unique perspective on market dynamics, showing the balance between investor activity and long-term holding. A spike indicates increased trading or profit-taking, often signaling major price shifts. While insightful for understanding Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, it’s important to remember that its predictive power is still being tested across various market conditions, and volatility is always a factor.
Does the Power Law Model Support a High Bitcoin Price Target?
Adding weight to the $330,000 prediction, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With’s analysis using a 365-day simple moving average and a robust Power Law Model (R²=0.96) outlines a similar cycle top range for BTC. This model projects Bitcoin’s price could reach between $220,000 and $330,000 in this cycle.
With Bitcoin currently trading around $104,000, hitting these targets would require a 100% to 200% surge. This aligns with historical cycle peaks where prices have doubled or tripled above the power law trendline. The model challenges the idea of diminishing volatility, showing that Bitcoin’s price cycles still exhibit significant swings, consistent with steady deviations from the trendline.
While optimistic, the researcher appropriately cautions that this analysis draws from only four market cycles, suggesting a degree of skepticism is warranted. However, other indicators support this bullish outlook. A list of 30 bull market peak indicators from CoinGlass also suggests Bitcoin could climb to $230,000, with none signaling a cycle top even after BTC reached $112,000 recently. Metrics like Pi Cycle Top and MVRV indicate that the Bitcoin bull market likely has more room to run, supporting the higher price targets.
What About Institutional Buying and OTC Holdings?
Further bolstering the case for continued upward movement in the Bitcoin price is the notable shift in over-the-counter (OTC) desk holdings. Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant drop in Bitcoin held by OTC desks, from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This decline indicates large investors are moving their Bitcoin off exchanges, potentially signaling reduced selling pressure and a move towards long-term storage.
This trend stems from strategic accumulation by institutional players. MicroStrategy continues its aggressive buying, and new entrants like Metaplanet have rapidly amassed 10,000 BTC. Robust net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $128.18 billion in net value, also contribute. BlackRock’s crypto portfolio alone holds over $70 billion in BTC, demonstrating the clear intent of major investors to accumulate and hold Bitcoin.
This institutional demand acts as a significant tailwind for the Bitcoin price, potentially absorbing selling pressure and supporting higher valuations throughout the remainder of the Bitcoin bull market.
Summary: Is $330K for BTC Price Really Possible?
Based on historical patterns seen in metrics like the AVIV Ratio and the projections from the Power Law Model, a Bitcoin price target of $330,000 before the end of this cycle is a distinct possibility. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, these models, combined with strong institutional accumulation and declining OTC balances, paint a compelling picture for continued growth in the Bitcoin bull market. As always, conducting your own research is crucial before making investment decisions, but the data certainly suggests exciting times could be ahead for BTC.
