Crypto Cycle: Raoul Pal Sees Spooky 2017 Parallel, Predicts Extended Bull Run

Could the current crypto market surge be following a familiar script? Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal certainly thinks so, noting a striking resemblance between today’s landscape and the **2017 Crypto Market** trajectory. For anyone invested in or watching the digital asset space, understanding these potential parallels is crucial for navigating what might come next.

Is This Crypto Cycle a Spooky 2017 Comparison?

According to Raoul Pal, the current **Crypto Cycle** is playing out with a ‘spooky similarity’ to 2017. Back then, Bitcoin saw a steady climb for most of the year before experiencing a dramatic price explosion in December. Pal suggests we might be seeing a similar pattern unfold now.

Let’s look at the 2017 movement:

• Started 2017 around $1,044.
• Reached $2,187 by May 31st.
• Closed the year at $14,156, a gain of roughly 1,255%.

While historical performance is never a guarantee of future results, Pal’s observation provides an interesting framework for considering potential market behavior.

How Macro Data Could Extend the Crypto Cycle, According to Raoul Pal

**Raoul Pal** points to macroeconomic factors as a key reason why this cycle might not peak as quickly as some expect. He uses a ‘business cycle score’ model, which is currently ‘still below 50’, indicating there’s more room for the global economy to climb within its broader cycle. This, he believes, suggests a potentially longer runway for the crypto market.

Furthermore, the weakening US Dollar Index (DXY) is seen as a bullish signal for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Since the start of the year, the DXY has dropped significantly. Bitcoin and the DXY often show an inverse correlation: a weaker dollar can make Bitcoin more attractive as an alternative store of value or speculative asset.

Pal speculates that this interplay of **Macro Data**, including the dollar’s movement and delayed interest rate adjustments, has ‘shifted’ the entire cycle, potentially pushing the peak into Q2 2026. This is a significant forecast that challenges narratives of an imminent market top.

Could the Current Market Phase Resemble 2020 More Than 2021?

Adding another layer to his analysis, **Raoul Pal** suggests that current market conditions might feel more like 2020 than the euphoric peak of 2021. The 2020 market saw Bitcoin experience a significant dip early in the year before staging a strong recovery and ending the year with substantial gains (around 304%).

This comparison implies that the market might still be in an earlier growth phase than commonly assumed, suggesting potential for further upside if the pattern holds.

Institutional Interest: A Catalyst for Attracting Bigger Players

For the crypto market to sustain its expansion and potentially mirror or exceed past cycles, it needs continued influx from larger investors and institutions. **Raoul Pal** shared insights from a recent trip to the Middle East, where he met with Sovereign Wealth Funds.

He noted a prevailing bullish sentiment towards crypto across the region, highlighting a clear mandate:

• Focus on AI and Blockchain technology.
• Interest extends beyond just using Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
• Ambition to build government infrastructure on blockchain.

This level of interest from major capital allocators in regions like the Middle East could indeed be a significant catalyst for attracting the ‘bigger players’ needed to fuel further market growth and potentially extend the **Crypto Cycle**.

Conclusion: Navigating the Potential Extended Cycle

Raoul Pal’s perspective offers a compelling case for an extended **Crypto Cycle**, drawing parallels to the 2017 bull run while emphasizing the influential role of **Macro Data** and growing institutional adoption. His forecast of a potential peak in Q2 2026, driven by factors like a weakening dollar and the position of the global business cycle, provides a longer-term outlook than many current predictions.

While the future of **Bitcoin Price** and the broader market remains uncertain, insights from experienced analysts like **Raoul Pal** are invaluable for understanding the complex forces at play. Whether the market follows the 2017 script precisely or charts a new course, staying informed about macroeconomic trends and institutional movements will be key for participants in the digital asset space.