Urgent Warning: Saifedean Ammous Predicts Major Bitcoin Price Drop
Celebrated author and economist Saifedean Ammous has issued a stark warning to Bitcoin investors, particularly corporate buyers, suggesting the current rally is on ‘very shaky ground’ as it approaches a potential bull market top. His message is clear: be prepared for significant volatility, potentially an 80% decline in the Bitcoin price.
Saifedean Ammous on the Nearing Top
Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast, the author of ‘The Bitcoin Standard’ emphasized that despite increasing institutional interest and corporate adoption, the cyclical nature of Bitcoin markets remains. Ammous believes the bull market is nearing its end phase, regardless of who is buying.
His key point is the historical precedent for large drawdowns. Bitcoin has seen declines of 70% to 80% from previous peaks, and Ammous argues it can happen again. This historical perspective is crucial for anyone building a business model around Bitcoin holdings.
Preparing for a Potential 80% BTC Price Comedown
Ammous directly addressed businesses and individuals holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. He stressed the importance of having a strategy that can withstand a substantial price shock.
“If your business model can’t handle a -80% BTC price drawdown, rework your business model right now,” he advised, indicating that the market is entering a dangerous phase.
He noted that previous market tops occurred roughly one to eighteen months after the halving event, aligning with the current timeframe. While acknowledging the possibility of BTC reaching $200,000 or higher this cycle, he highlighted the significant gains already made from the last bottom ($15,000 to over $100,000), underscoring that the market is extended.
Lessons from Past Bitcoin Bear Market Cycles
Long-time participants in the Bitcoin market are increasingly vocal about the potential for complacency among newer entrants, especially large corporate holders. The fear is that many may not fully appreciate the severity and duration of a Bitcoin bear market.
Max Keiser, another prominent Bitcoin commentator, echoed Ammous’s concerns. He specifically questioned the preparedness of newer corporate entities mimicking MicroStrategy’s strategy, noting that Michael Saylor’s firm was tested and continued buying even when underwater. Keiser doubts whether the ‘Strategy clones’ possess the same discipline when faced with significant losses.
Implications for Corporate Bitcoin Strategies
The trend of corporations adding Bitcoin to their treasuries is growing globally. Recent examples include a Paris-based firm acquiring substantial amounts of BTC. These companies are now exposed to Bitcoin’s inherent volatility.
Ammous’s warning serves as a critical reminder that adding corporate Bitcoin to a balance sheet requires a robust risk management plan that accounts for severe price downturns. Simply buying and holding might not be sufficient if the business requires access to capital or faces external pressures during a prolonged bear market.
Key Takeaways from the Warning:
- Saifedean Ammous believes Bitcoin is nearing a bull market top.
- He warns of a potential 70-80% price drawdown, consistent with historical cycles.
- Corporate Bitcoin holders must prepare their business models for this volatility.
- The timing aligns with historical patterns post-halving.
- Experienced market participants express doubt about the resilience of new corporate buyers.
Market forecasts continue to vary, with some targets still reaching $200,000 or more in 2025. However, the caution from respected voices like Saifedean Ammous highlights the significant risks that remain in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
